Saturday, July 27, 2013

20 Greatest of the 20 Latest: Sports Moments


“Greatest of the Latest” is back, and this time around we’re going back to the world of sports. This list will break down the top 20 sports moments of the last 20 years. These were the plays or games that either gave us the goosebumps, made us lose our breaths, or got us out of our seats. I stayed away from including violent or devastating moments, such as the “Malice at the Palace” or Dale Earnhardt’s death. Still, there were many deserving candidates, but only 20 could make the cut. Let’s get to it.


Before the 2004 Masters, Phil Mickelson was undoubtedly one of the best golfers in the world, but he was the guy who couldn’t win the big one. Down 3 shots with 7 holes to do on the last day of the tournament, it appeared as if nothing would change. But then, Lefty went on a roll and had a long putt to win it on the 18th hole. He sank it, the crowd erupted, and Phil Mickelson won his first major.


From one guy who couldn’t win the big one to another. By the 1997 Super Bowl, John Elway was already a first-ballot Hall of Famer but he was 0-3 in Super Bowls. Everyone thought he was going to be 0-4 after he was done with the heavily favored Packers. But with the score tied at 17 late in the third quarter, Elway showed America how badly he wanted it. On a 3rd and 6 play, Elway scrambled and gave up his body for the first down. He got just enough yardage, and Denver went on to score and win the game.


Even though Brett Favre was the guy who didn’t miss games, his status for a Monday night game in Oakland was in doubt when his beloved father passed away the night before. Not only did Favre play in the game, he might have played the best game of his career. He threw for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns, and even had the brutal Raiders fans cheering for him. Love or hate Favre, this was one of the most incredible moments ever to take place on a football field.


Yes, I know everything Mark McGwire did in his career is tainted by steroid use. And yes, I know that he no longer owns the single-season home run record. But the chase to #62 between McGwire and Sammy Sosa was legendary. The 1998 MLB season was not long after the strike, so this home run chase brought the game back to its glory days of popularity. The best part of it all? McGwire hit the home run in St. Louis while they were playing against Sosa’s Cubs. The post-homer hug between the two sluggers remains an iconic image in baseball history.


Remember, this game was played in New York only TEN DAYS after the events of September 11th. Just thinking about it now, it’s mind-boggling that they played the game so soon, but America needed a distraction from its pain and they got it from Mike Piazza. Down 2-1 in the 8th inning, Piazza hit a bomb over the centerfield wall and sent Shea Stadium into a frenzy. There was applause, tears, and it still gives me goosebumps.


The 2003 ALCS was the most intense MLB postseason series of all time. It seemed like every game there was a fight, like Pedro Martinez throwing the ancient Don Zimmer to the ground. In Game 7 it looked as if the Yankees were done for, but they rallied off of Pedro and sent the game into extras. Then, Aaron Boone crushed a knuckler from Tim Wakefield into the stands and cemented his place in Yankee history. This probably would have ranked higher if the Yankees had won the World Series, but eliminating the Red Sox is good enough in my book.


Kobe Bryant has won championships, scoring titles, and an MVP award. But when people look back on Kobe’s career, they’ll remember the 81-point game. When Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 in one game, the NBA was much different and was built for a center to dominate. The fact that Kobe even approached Wilt in the modern NBA is unbelievable. Literally every shot Kobe put up was falling. It was a magical performance, and it cemented him as one of the all-time greats.


Today Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are known as two of the best ever at their positions in NFL history, but back in 2001 most people thought they were flukes who were supposed to be crushed by the Rams. But the Patriots kept it close, and they got the ball back with about a minute left and no timeouts. America assumed they were going to knee the ball, but that’s not the Patriot way. Brady set up a 47-yarder for Vinatieri, and then the most clutch kicker of all time changed NFL history with one kick.


It had been 54 years since the Rangers, an Original 6 team, had won a Stanley Cup. However, once they brought Mark Messier, Adam Graves, and others into town, the losing culture within Madison Square Garden began to change. Only two years after Messier’s arrival, the Rangers were in the Stanley Cup Finals against the Vancouver Canucks. The series went back and forth until Game 7 in New York, when the Messiah scored the game-winning goal and the Rangers were finally champions again.


There have been other memorable Cinderella runs recently in the NCAA Tournament, but none were more thrilling or captivating than that of the George Mason Patriots. The most impressive thing about this run was that George Mason was upsetting college basketball powerhouses. In the first round they knocked out Michigan State, and in the next round the victim was North Carolina. The legendary upset though was the one over top-seeded Connecticut. UConn was a popular pick to win it all, but George Mason rallied to stun the Huskies in an overtime classic. While they lost in the Final Four to eventual champs Florida, America fell in love with George Mason during this tournament.


What George Mason did to March Madness, Boise State did to the BCS. In 2007 the common belief was that the mid-major football programs couldn’t hang with the big dogs, but Boise State got a chance to prove the world wrong in a matchup with the Adrian Peterson-led Oklahoma Sooners. While Boise State did not outmuscle Oklahoma, they did outsmart them with trickery, which is enough to win a football game. First it was the hook and ladder on 4th and long to send the game into overtime. Then it was the halfback pass to score a touchdown in overtime. And finally, it was the Statue of Liberty handoff to win the game. The rest is history. Ian Johnson throws the football into the stands and runs off to propose to his cheerleader girlfriend. She said yes, as did America to this loveable Boise State bunch. A playoff is coming to college football in a few years (thank God), and Boise State is due plenty of thanks for that.


It really speaks volumes about the magnitude of a sports moment when it didn’t even last 10 seconds, yet it’s considered one of the all-time greats. Usain Bolt, the greatest sprinter ever, managed to pull it off. Just think about it. The race was only 100 meters long, it was against the best the world had to offer, and he still managed to turn it into a blowout. The 9.69 he posted was BY FAR the best time ever recorded, and he did so while slowing down at the end to celebrate. Oh yeah, and he did it with a shoe untied. In hindsight, it really just wasn’t fair.


Has there been a more exciting single play…ever? “The Music City Miracle” is simply football porn. I’ve seen the replay over 100 times and I still get the chills every single time. The look of bewilderment combined with excitement on the face of the late Steve McNair is priceless. When I hear the radio call of, “THERE ARE NO FLAGS ON THE FIELD!” I feel the urge to toss my laptop and shotgun a beer. And no, I am not taking this too far. The Titans were down by 1 at home with 16 seconds in the playoffs to the Bills, who had already started celebrating after they kicked a field goal to go ahead. Then all hell broke loose. Frank Wycheck threw a lateral that was literally parallel to the yard line, and Kevin Dyson took it to the house. The cherry on top was that it was the football gods’ way of kicking Wade Phillips in the balls for benching Doug Flutie for Rob Johnson. If the Titans had gone on to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, this would have ranked even higher.


For all the non-tennis lovers, here me out. I didn’t just place this here because I am in love with the sport of tennis. I placed it here because this was the greatest match of tennis ever played. I actually wanted to put it higher on the list, but I think I would have had to put an asterisk next to it for bias. Literally every single point of the match was a battle. Two of the greatest players of all-time, including the best, were at their absolute best. Everyone who watched the match was literally watching a changing of the guard in men’s professional tennis unfold in front of them. Rafael Nadal had finally defeated the unstoppable Roger Federer at Wimbledon. In total, the five-set match lasted 4 hours and 48 minutes. 4 hours and 48 minutes of pure greatness.


From the greatest Wimbledon final of all time to the greatest BCS National Championship Game of all time. The 2006 Rose Bowl matched Vince Young’s Texas Longhorns against Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush’s USC Trojans. Remember, USC at this time was like all of today’s SEC talent compiled into one team. They were THAT good. Most experts called them the greatest college football team ever assembled. They had the two last Heisman winners on the same roster, and Bush was in the midst of possibly the greatest season ever by a running back in college football history. (Because of the sanctions later handed down to Bush, his Heisman and statistics were all removed from the record books. So I guess there’s no proof that PJ Moran wasn’t the running back for USC that year?) Anyway, Texas was a great team, but they were supposed to be crushed by the steamroller that was USC. Yeah, it didn’t really go that way. The game went back and forth until late in the fourth quarter, when Young was facing a 4th and 5 at the USC 9-yard line. The rest is history. Young scrambled just inside the right pylon and put the Longhorns ahead for good. Since then, the USC football program was been stuck in a downward spiral. Ironically, so has Vince Young’s life.


I am among the biggest Giants fans in the world, and I will admit, I came seconds away from missing this play. Don’t get me wrong, I watched every single second of that Super Bowl. But as Eli Manning was stuck in the grasp of Jarvis Green and Richard Seymour on that fateful 3rd-down play, I started to leave the room because I couldn’t watch Eli go down. But then I heard Joe Buck clumsily yell, “Stays on his feet!” and I sprinted back in front of the TV and watched that beautiful football sail through the beautiful Arizona sky onto the beautiful helmet of David Tyree. I still don’t know how he caught that ball. I’ve watched every single Giants game for a long time, and trust me when I tell you that David Tyree was a BAD wide receiver. He was on that roster to play special teams. Not to mention I’ve lost track of how many times Eli Manning has tripped over his own feet, but he somehow was able to withstand the grip of two defensive linemen. But for whatever reason Eli managed to stay upright and Tyree was in the right place at the right time, and I’d like to thank them both for being able to sleep happily at night ever since.


Before he made this shot to win the 1998 NBA Finals, Michael Jordan was already Michael Jordan. I would rattle off his numbers and awards but it was take up pages of valuable space. But after Jordan sank this shot over Russell, it cemented that he was more than just the greatest basketball player of all-time. Michael Jordan became the greatest professional athlete of all-time. If there’s any doubt, just look at that Game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals. It’s really a snapshot of Jordan’s career. He scored 45 points, more than half of his entire team’s total alone. The Bulls were down one with 15 seconds left, so MJ took matters into his own hands. He stole the ball away from Karl Malone, a legend in his own right, let some clock run off, the drained the bucket over a great defender in Byron Russell. And to all of the losers who cry, “push off” whenever they see that play, my ass. I’ve stopped hating on LeBron James recently. I’ve actually grown to admire what the guy can do on the court. But if anyone dares to even think of comparing him with Jordan, think again. It’s really not even close, and I’d be shocked if that ever changes.


If you are a sports fan in need of a good cry, and consider yourself too much of a man to watch “The Notebook,” then watch the clip of the Saints returning to the Superdome. That is just powerful shit. I wasn’t even personally affected by Hurricane Katrina and it still hits deep with me. I like to think that the Giants mean the world to me, but I can only imagine what the 2006 Saints team meant to the city of New Orleans. The Saints’ first touchdown also could not have come in a more awesome way. Steve Gleason broke through the punt block team, and Curtis Deloatch scooped it up in the end zone. People who were in the building for that play said it was the loudest they have ever heard a sports venue. The Saints could have been playing the 1972 Miami Dolphins or the Steel Curtain that night and it wouldn’t have made a difference. No one was going to take that night away from the Saints and the people of New Orleans.


Before his fall from grace in 2009 and his recent shortcomings in major championships, Tiger Woods was on his way to becoming the best athlete of the past 20 years. He has won 14 majors and has been ranked #1 for practically the entire 21st century. Although Tiger has had many great wins in his distinguished career, one stands out far above the rest: the 2008 U.S. Open. Tiger was at the top of his game, but he practically played the entire tournament on one leg, considering he had a double stress fracture of his tibia and a torn ACL. Despite these injuries, after four rounds of golf at Torrey Pines, Tiger was tired for the lead with fan-favorite Rocco Mediate. It was David vs. Goliath, but in this case, America was not collectively rooting for the same winner. Everyone just wanted the tournament to last forever, even though Woods’s injury was clearly worsening hole after hole. The two traded birdie for birdie in the 18-hole playoff, and Tiger sank the last birdie on 18 to send it into a sudden-death playoff. That playoff didn’t last as long, as Tiger won on the first hole. But still, it was the greatest battle between two players golf fans had ever seen. Tiger Woods only added on to his legacy, and Rocco won over the hearts of all viewers.


I know that for greatest sports moment of the last 20 years, the title of this event isn’t instantly recognizable. Let me help you out. In this race at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, Michael Phelps won the 2nd of his record 8 gold medals.  While this race wasn’t the one that got him the record, it was by far the most entertaining and intense event that Phelps participated in. Not only that, it was the best event of the entire Olympics. And even one step further, it was the best Olympic event of the past 20 years. This was the one race of Phelps’s that he was not favored to win, as the American team of Phelps, Garrett Weber-Gale, Cullen Jones, and Jason Lezak was predicted to come in second to the French. That prediction looked correct going into the anchor leg of the 4x100 relay, especially considering the fact that the United States had already used Phelps. Lezak was going to have to pull off a miracle, and he didn’t let his country down. He swam the fasted 50 meter split in Olympic history and touched the wall literally milliseconds before France’s Alain Bernard. In real time, it seemed like there was no way that the Americans came back to win. But in the slow-motion underwater view, it was clear that Lezak was the first to touch the wall. From this moment on, it became a strong possibility that Phelps was going to break the record. The rest is history. Michael Phelps became the greatest Olympian in history. He’s the greatest athlete of the last 20 years. Now, he’s also the co-owner of the greatest sports moment of the last 20 years. As if the guy needed another award.


Disagree with the rankings? Think there was a moment left out, like Andy Murray’s recent triumph at Wimbledon? Comment and let us know at Ice Bath Report!

- PJ Moran
Follow PJ on Twitter at @PEEJ9493

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Ilya Kovalchuk

The Future of the New Jersey Devils

Hello Readers,

My name is Kyle Mulholland and due to recent news...I decided to make a contribution to the Ice Bath Report. Anyway, I am a huge sports fanatic. I have finished my junior year of High school and am a returning Varsity Soccer player -- as well as a glorified JV baseball player. I hit .547 this year but who keeping track and honestly who cares. But my absolute love is hockey. I have never really played competitive ice hockey, but as long as I can remember I have been watching the New Jersey Devils. Besides the NHL, I also follow the NFL and the MLB. Being only 5’5 basketball has yet to grow on me and I just really hate the NBA to be truthful.

Now lets get to the business….

I am currently writing this a few days after the hockey world was shocked by the departure of New Jersey Devils star forward Ilya Kovalchuk. Last Thursday Kovalchuk announced his retirement from the NHL so he could move back to Russia with his family and continue to play hockey. As one of the most die-hard Devils fan a person could ever meet, I was immediately shocked by this news. I found out by checking my phone in the kitchen of my shitty bus boy job to see a myriad of text messages from a Rangers fan who took the utmost pleasure in Kovalchuk’s departure. At first I wasn’t buying it, there was no way in which this is possible. But after 20 minutes of Sportscenter still showing some bullshit on the Miami Heat, and with an ESPN broadcaster completely mispronouncing his name, the news became all too real.

My initial reaction that night was how and why. Dear God who in the right mind would walk away from $77 million in guaranteed money. Something like this has never really happened in the NHL, especially not with a marque name like Kovalchuk. I didn’t even think a player could do this -- leave their team with a contract to go play overseas. As I did further research and read countless articles that were written that night, I learned the Devils allowed him to leave. They voided his contract and signed off on his retirement papers.

Three days later as I have now let everything soak in, I truly think this may be the best thing to ever happen to the New Jersey Devils franchise. Kovalchuk was not a traditional Devil, he didn’t play defense and was built on flash rather than hard work -- not take away from his overall talent.

 In his three seasons as a Devil, he brought something that we as fans have never seen before. He was an absolute superstar who pumped the Rock (better known as the Prudential Center) with energy and excitement. His ability to completely take a game over with his speed and exceptional shot was new to us as Devil fans. He scored clutch overtime goals like this. And in reality it was him who led the Devils through their improbable 2012 playoff run -- not captain Zach Parise.

With all of the positives we can take away from Ilya Kovalchuk’s time as a Devil, the fact of the matter is in his three seasons with New Jersey they missed the playoffs twice -- something that has not happened in my lifetime prior. With Kovalchuk’s retirement… yeah still weird to say, the Devils will free up $77 million over the next 12 years and won’t have to take his $6 million cap hit when he is 38 years old and barley producing. In the wake of signing his massive 15 year $100 million deal in 2010, Kovalchuk proclaimed himself as a “Devil for Life.”

But the longer he was in New Jersey the more I learned he was never really a Devil. The only reason why he signed with New Jersey rather than Los Angeles was because of money. Now Kovalchuk is leaving for even more money. In an interview with Kovalchuk’s mother via Yahoo Sports, she explained how he had the pay the league escrow of 20% and how New Jersey income taxes were an 45% -- cutting his salary significantly. Kovalchuk chose to go play in the KHL where he will earn money possibly up to $15 million a year and pay minimal taxes. This man is a complete sellout. He was never about winning a Stanley Cup and more importantly he was never about the New Jersey Devils. He had the talent to be one of the best goal scorers the NHL has ever seen, but in reality he didn’t give a shit. I compare him to Allen Iverson, full of unbelievable raw talent, but just never truly had the drive and will to succeed.

Now the Devils will go back to their golden age. Where the term “Devils Hockey” was coined. They will go back to the time when they were built from the goalie out. They won games due to great goaltending, strong Defense and timely scoring. Back in the late 90’s and early 2000’s the Devils won 3 Stanley cups. They did it without a superstar and I believe it is possible today. The last time the Devils won the cup was in 2003, where their leading scorer was Patrik Elias with 28 goals and 57 points. A sub-par season by anyone’s standards. With the acquisition of stud Goaltender Cory Schneider, this Devils team is looking a lot like the old days.


The New Jersey Devils 2013- 2014 roster does not have one star player, they will not have an All Star, they probably won’t have a player reach the 60 point plateau which is what I say a player must reach to be considered “Solid”. This Kovalchuk-less team will be lead by a mix of veterans and no-name young guns, but overall I believe with the loss of Kovalchuk this franchise is heading in the right direction.

-Kyle Mullholland 

Thursday, May 2, 2013

Kentucky Derby


The Breakdown from Handicapper Chris


For casual fans around the globe, the Kentucky Derby is a chance to hone in on a foreign sport for one day out of the year — a chance to celebrate and recognize a majestic sport that was once a prominent piece of American culture, but now buried in the cellar in the American sports landscape of popularity.

Hardcore horse racing fans and handicappers will have a different opinion on the Derby. The Derby represents a handicapper’s worst nightmare. The twenty-horse race is a two-minute morass of chaos and struggle — jockeys looking and begging for room, bumping into each other; in most cases, the winner needs a tremendous amount of luck and is not always the best horse in the race.

Simply put: nobody knows anything. Handicapping skills go out the window (mostly) for the Kentucky Derby. You can handicap the race perfectly, but if your horse gets caught up in the 20-horse mess, if he misses the break, if he get’s bumped and pinned on the rail…it could be all over.

For example: In 2001 — Point Given—arguably the greatest horse of this century, fell victim to an absolute torrid pace duel. He went faster than accustomed in the first half of the race, and also fell victim to the eventual winner Monarchos, who ran the absolute race of his life on that day.

Point Given went on to win the Preakness, the Belmont in triumphant fashion, and then two more Grade 1 races (Haskell and Travers) before retiring. Point Given was clearly the best horse in the Kentucky Derby that year, but like in any sport, he was not the best on that day. This is especially common in the chaotic enigma that is the Kentucky Derby.

My Story

I have yet to meet a person my age that shares the same passion for Horse Racing. I understand why — outside of once or twice a summer where the 20-somethings will flock to the track for big days to get annihilated, the sport just doesn’t get much attention anymore. But, I have been doing this for a very long time. I've had a racing form in my hand since I was 5 years-old. I truly love this game.

Although I am mostly avid-handicapper, I am also a general fan of the sport. And for a sport that I love, I desperately hope that some form of superstar horse can bring back some excitement for America to enjoy again, a Triple Crown winner would be most ideal. A feat that I would argue is among the toughest in sports, something that hasn’t been done since 1978 when Affirmed was the last King in the sport of Kings. Since then, the Breeders Cup has been added to the racing schedule, a now two day event that represents the Super Bowl for the sport for all divisions of racing, dirt, turf, sprinters, long distance…everything.

Those two days are a handicapper’s paradise, racing that is more fair and clear to come up with winners, but still presents the opportunity to make money with long shots that still have a chance to win.

But still, the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Derby in particular is the most widely celebrated and recognized part of modern-America’s scope of horse racing. Even if the race isn’t necessarily fair on handicappers, I think we would all trade in losing tickets for a chance to see a star emerge and finally accomplish the Triple Crown feat that the sport so desperately needs.

So now the question is, who is going to win?

Like I said, this race is a nightmare for bettors. So many Derby factors exist on top of the dozens of factors that all handicappers already consider. Post-position can be the death of a horse…many will lose the race in the first 100 yards. Nevertheless, I have broken down the Run for the Roses with my handicapping insight.

Here are the 9 horses who I think have the best chance to win, not necessarily in order. Some I like more than others, some of them are backed by the general public but I don't like them at all. My comments will tell you how I feel about them. The forecast on race day calls for some showers, but it doesn’t seem that it will affect the track’s condition to any large degree, but I incorporated that angle into my analysis just in case.

I should also note that many handicappers will use Beyer speed figures as a way to measure a horse. To be honest, I have found that looking at Beyer numbers in Grade 1 races has led me to more bad decisions than good. So for this day, I am ignoring them all together. So if that's a major part of your handicapping game, you can either I ignore what I have to say, or hopefully I provide you with some different angles and you can interpret them the way in which you please.

Let's get to it.

The Cream of the Crop

16 Orb

ML: 7/2

Trainer: Shug Mcgaughey
Jockey: Joel Rosario

The likely post-time favorite deserves it. This son of Malibu Moon is undefeated in his 3 year-old campaign, including a Fountain of Youth victory over a once highly-touted Pletcher hopeful Violence, and a Florida Derby romp over Derby contender Itsmyluckyday and the 2 year-old champion Shanghai Bobby. In the latter, he was five wide on the turn and still won in hand. Mcgaughey has been boasting about this colt ever since that win, saying he has never had a horse improve so much in such a little time span, as well as expressing his excitement over his work on the Churchill Downs surface. By all accounts, he looked like a stud in that work. His sire was lightly raced, but his granddaddy is A.P. Indy, whose credentials as a runner and sire are well known. The dam is by Unbridled, who won the Derby in 1990. So the resume and pedigree is all there, not to mention the Florida Derby has been one of the most successful Derby preps in terms of producing winners, (3 since 2000). He drew the 16 hole, which isn’t bad as long as he’s not caught way wide on the first turn. By all accounts, he looks like a horse ready to run the race of his life. It’s up to Rosario and racing luck to get this one home. The one to beat.


14 Verrazano

ML: 4-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

You cannot ignore any horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Velazquez, let alone one that has not lost in his career. This More Than Ready colt broke his maiden on the 1st of the new year, and since followed with wins in a one mile allowance, then the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial. He was flattered when the Tampa Bay runner-up Java’s War came back and won the Blue Grass. The Wood wasn’t exactly full of slouches either, when he fought off a challenge from the formerly undefeated Vyjack, and held off a late run from Normandy Invasion, both well-respected opponents. If there is a negative, he embodies the typical Pletecher 3 year-old who has had everything his way up to this point…being on or just off the lead. This horse has never faced any trouble or adversity, which is almost impossible to avoid on Derby day. There will certainly be other speed, so he will have to work much harder in the early stages. Not to mention, his pedigree doesn’t exactly scream distance, as More Than Ready failed to win at over a mile in his career. The last Wood Memorial winner to follow up with a Derby win was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and the last horse to win the Derby without racing at age 2 was in 1882. Yea. At a short price, I am not crazy about him, but he very well could be a freak. Must respect.

3 Revolutionary (The Pick)

ML: 10-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Calvin Borel

Pletcher and Borel teamed up to strike gold on Derby Day in 2008 when they won with post-time favorite Super Saver. This son of War Pass will most likely be the second choice of the six Pletcher colts entered, and should be the 4th or 5th choice come post-time. The sire was the 2007 2yo champion, with the dam Runup the Colors winning at a mile and a quarter, who is also by A.P. Indy. Grandsire is Cherokee Run who doesn’t exactly say distance…but this colt has improved with every stretch out and has not gotten a clean enough trip to show everything he has in the tank. To the resume, he broke his maiden just before the new year, then ran into all kinds of trouble in the Withers in his first graded stakes attempt. Despite being completely stymied in the stretch, a small hole opened, and he showed a tremendous burst of acceleration in the final sixteenth of a mile to win. In my opinion, that move was the most impressive run in any of the Derby prep races. In the Louisiana , he broke slow and was forced into the six path on the turn while making his move (showing easy acceleration when asked again), then was seemingly caught by Mylute at the bottom of the stretch, only to fight back and prevail for the win. That last race was on 3/30, giving him five weeks of rest for this tilt. Steady worktab, and has showed to be a fearless horse and is now given a fearless jockey. Loved the tenacity and competitiveness he showed in that LA Derby win, and no horse has overcome the trouble this guy has. He did draw the 3 hole which is usually not where you want to be, but with Calvin Borail in the irons  it should not be a problem. He has what I call "push button speed," meaning when you ask him to run, he shoots out of a cannon. He has shown not only elite ability, but he is willing to go to war in order to win. His best is yet to come, just needs that rail to open up for him. The pick.

Next Tier

8 Goldencents

ML: 5-1

Trainer: Doug O’Neil
Jockey: Kevin Krigger

Last year’s winning trainer is back at it again with another SA Derby victor and another no-name jockey. He received a 105 beyer for that effort at SA Effort, although he did have the absolute perfect trip and beat a less-than-flattering field. The West Coast crop of 3 yo’s is a little bit of a mystery this year, and definitely not as strong as previous years. The last time a trainer won back-to-back derby’s was in 1998, when Bob Baffert repeated with Real Quiet after Silver Charm’s 1997 win. I tend to layoff horses that are coming off career best efforts, and as I mentioned earlier, I would prefer a horse that is ready to pop…ala Animal Kingdom in 2011. This one isn’t exactly bred for distance, but figures to be right in the thick of things from the start, the question is: How long can he stay there? No works over the Churchill surface also don’t make me crazy about him. Going to bet against the chances of O’Neil repeating, passing but is a huge pace player.


5 Normandy Invasion

ML: 12-1

Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano

This horse kills me. Every time I think he’s ready to pop, he comes up short. Yet I keep betting him. I also have an affinity for closers, and this one is just that – although he sat closer in the Wood Memorial, and in his latest work, Brown had him go the first quarter mile faster than the last quarter of a mile. He could just be a morning warrior, three straight bullet works before the Wood couldn’t get him over the hump. But a recent 5F move over the Churchill surface in :59 flat would suggest he is razor sharp. Maybe Brown is trying to train some early speed into him. This son of Tapit broke slow in the Remsen and was flying at the end, only to come up short to Overanalyze. Then he missed the break in the Risen Star, commenced a rally but was all over the track and didn’t hit his best stride until it was far too late. In the Wood, Verrazano had everything his way, with Normandy once again finding his best stride late and coming up short, and actually passed Verrazano after the wire — which could suggest he wants the extra eighth of a mile. His sire Tapit was victorious in his Wood Memorial try, with the grandsire Pulpit winning the Blue Grass and carrying the A.P. Indy blood line. The female side isn’t exactly distance flattering; but what makes this horse even more puzzling his Castellano’s decision to ride him. Castellano had the option to ride Revolutionary, but he chose this one. Now, this may be me reading too far into things, because Castellano could very well just be honoring a bigger commitment to Chad Brown as opposed to Pletcher. Castellano is the no-doubt first call for Brown, who is young trainer on the rise, while he normally defers to John Velazquez for first-call when it comes to Pletcher horses. So this may be a case where he may not have chose the best horse, but made a decision to benefit the future of his career. But then again…maybe he thinks he has a better chance to win, and Castellano’s opinion carries great weight. Regardless the reasoning…I once again won’t be able to avoid him in my plays, maybe he is finally ready to pop, maybe is a closer that just can never seem to get there. Most agonizing horse in the field for me, but I can’t abandon him now.

19 Java’s War

ML: 15-1

Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Another killer for me. I was all over this horse in the Blue Grass after watching his huge move in the Tampa Bay Derby, when he catapulted across the field but failed to catch Verrazano. That move on the turn though showed that he has kick and was ready to improve, which he did just that in the Blue Grass, coming from last to first in the stretch to power home and catch Palace Malice. He undoubtedly showed that when asked, he can move. But, was that his “pop” race on the poly? You want to bet Derby horses that are ready for the best effort of their career, not those who have already done. I also fear that he is a “poly freak,” a horse that loves the synthetic track, usually conducive to closers. But Churchill isn’t exactly a speedway either, and I have chalked up 4 of the last 10 Derby winners to be dead closers. However, the worst effort of his career came on the Churchill surface, albeit as a 2 year old. I’ll Have Another won last year’s Derby from this same post, if the pace is hot and the Blue Grass was no fluke…he will be coming late.Dangerous.


 6 Mylute

ML: 15-1

Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

You will see plenty of talk about this horse, as Amoss has called on the Derby Darling to take the mount. He has been steadily gaining steam from the betting public, and it wouldn’t shock me if he is an underlay simply because of the “Rosie Factor.” All Hollywood aside, Rosie is one of the best jockeys in the country and warrants respect, not to mention this horse just continues to improve, and his stock only climbs more if the track is wet. His sire Midnight Lute triumphed home in the Breeders Cup Sprint over the slop at Monmouth in 2007, and despite being a sprinter, his offspring have shown the ability to go long. In the LA Derby, he may have benefitted from the fast pace in the LA Derby, when he passed Revolutionary in the stretch but was unable to hold on. He ran that race with blinkers off and a changed running style, coming from well off the pace like his sire instead of staying close like his Risen Star effort, when he was in perfect striking range on the turn but just came up empty. That effort was also his first of the year and off a layoff, so he obviously needed the race. Overall, he was beaten by only a neck to Revolutionary who will certainly be the lower price, and is gaining steam and generating some buzz down the Churchill backstretch, and definitely catching the eyes of the bettors. The worry is that he had every reason to beat Revolutionary but he lost focus in the stretch once he got hold of the lead. He now boasts four works over the Churchill surface and definitely seems to be coming into his own and into peak fitness. He’s live.


 10 Palace Malice

ML: 20-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Mike Smith

Another Pletcher horse and another legitimate contender. After breaking his maiden last August, he didn’t return to the track until January, where he has not won in any of his four tries this year. However, we can only assume he needed that first race, in which he followed with a nice rally and effort in the Risen Star but was all over the place in the stretch in a race that completely broke down, where he ended up succumbing to 135-1 longshot I’ve Struck a Nerve. Then in the LA Derby he never got a chance to run and was completely blocked for the entire stretch. If you watch, Edgar Prado never moved his hands and or even remotely asked the horse for run, so that race was essentially a mile and an eighth workout. Then he goes into the Bluegrass, possibly ready for a big effort, again shows to be a little green by bouncing around while having the lead in the stretch, only to be caught in the last strides by Java’s War. However, he hung close to a hot pace in that race in which he was used up a little early and he clearly did not like the surface. If you put a line through the Lousiana, he has not been beaten by more than a length in both of his stakes tries. Sire Curlin was lightly raced coming into the Triple Crown, and ended up finishing 3rd in the ’07 Derby, winning the Preakness, and then finishing 2nd in the Belmont, then going on to have a stellar career at Classic distances. If it rains, one of Curlin’s victories came in the slop when he romped a very accomplished BC Classic field — the same slop in which Midnight Lute and War Pass were clear winners. The damsire ran at a mile and a half multiple times, albeit on the turf.  Bred to run all day, and he will come from off the pace but can also be close enough to avoid the worst of the trouble. He also was foaled later than others, with his 3rd birthday coming just two days before the Derby, which could explain some of the greenness. (Sound like Curlin doesn’t it?). He will only have 3 weeks rest, but his 4f move on 4/27 shows that he is perked up coming in and may take a liking to the track. Blinkers are a possibility, which could keep him more focused in the stretch. Not saying he is as talented as Curlin, but I have a feeling his best is yet to come and he will come at a good price. Hall of fame rider Mike Smith getting this assignment and drawing post 10 only adds to the appeal. Added distance should help, the possible addition of blinkers should help, and I think he is coming into form and ready for the biggest effort of his career. I think he this one could be the sneaky bastard of the field and you will get a nice price on him.

12 Itsmyluckyday

ML: 15-1

Trainer: Eddie Plesa
Jockey: Elvis Trujuillo

Out of everyone in this field, this guys seems to be the veteran, already with 10 races under his belt and 3 stakes since November of last year. He’s won half of those races and finished in the money in 3 others, so he almost always shows up. Both times that he finished out of the money, he was caught very wide on the far turn. He certainly showed his talent in 2013 when he romped in the Gulfstream Park Derby and then came back with a huge effort in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, where he demolished Shanghai Bobby. He took two months off before his final prep, the Florida Derby, where he seemed to have dead aim on Verrazano but simply didn’t have enough to get him. The more concerning part was that he had a tough time holding off the third place finisher who was coming out of sprint races as opposed to routes. He’s sired by Lawyer Ron who struggled at a mile and a quarter. Slow final work at Calder and no works over the Churchill surface aren’t too encouraging. However, if this horse returns to his form that he displayed in January with his two wins, then he is a major contender to win this race. His stalking style from the 12 hole should put him in a good position…don’t overlook.

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So there you have it folks, that’s my Kentucky Derby analysis. Even if you have no interest in horse racing…everyone has to make at least one bet on the First Saturday in May.

Good luck.


-Chris Collins

Follow Chris @ChrisCollins127

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