Super Bowl Breakdown

Super Bowl Preview

It’s 3^rd and 10, late in the 4^th quarter. Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe rolls out to the right, in search of an open receiver, but decides to turn up the field and run. What looks to be a first down run ends with Jets linebacker Mo Lewis flattening Bledsoe on the sideline. Bledsoe lies motionless on the sideline with a sheared blood vessel, and out trots 2^nd year no name Tom Brady. Brady would eventually lead his team to a Super Bowl victory that year, and later cement himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, as we all know.

Fast-forward 11 years to Week 11 of the 2012 season. 49ers quarterback Alex Smith leaves the game with a concussion after a collision with Rams linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Into the game comes wildcat specialist Colin Kaepernick. 7 wins and an NFL QB rushing record later, Kaepernick finds himself carrying his team to Super Bowl XXXVII.

This would have been a great opening to my Patriots vs. 49ers Super Bowl Preview. However, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the Patriots had other plans, generally involving turnovers of all kinds (interceptions, fumbles, questionable 4^th down calls). Instead, we find ourselves watching the Harbaugh-Bowl, HarBowl for short, this year. Every Super Bowl has its storylines, and 49ers vs. Ravens does not fall short in this regard. On one side there is Ray Lewis’ last game of his Hall of Fame career and a chance for Flacco to silence his critics (me). On the other hand, a 49ers victory would not only validate Jim Harbaugh’s QB decision as the coaching decision of the century, but also introduce the read option as a true pro offensive system. Let’s not forget that there is still a game to be played.

Game Time!

Keys to Victory:

Ravens – Give Ray Rice the ball! This year, including playoffs, the Ravens are 11-2 when Rice gets more than 15 touches. Given that every team runs about 60-70 offensive plays in a game, it would be smart of Jim Harbaugh to give the ball to his best player at least a third of the time. Many may question who would ever try to run against the 49ers vaunted run defense. Hell, I couldn’t even imagine trying to run past Justin Smith, only to face Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis at the next level. But lets look at San Francisco’s two worse losses this season. In a 26-3 Week 6 loss to the Giants, the 49ers D was dominated on the ground, with the Giants running for 149 yards on 37 carries. Likewise in a Week 16, 42-13 loss to the Seahawks, the 49ers gave up 176 yards on 39 carries. In both losses, the 49ers gave up less than 200 yards of passing. Clearly, the 49ers true kryptonite is a relentless run game, and behind the Ravens massive O-Line led by Yanda and Oher, Ray Rice can lead his team to victory.

Defensively for the Ravens, I honestly have no idea how this will turn out. The utter shutdown of the Patriots offense is extremely impressive, but Kaepernick’s read option is a completely different style. Not to mention a style that neutralizes the Ravens best quality, their ability to rush the quarterback. When playing the read option, Terrell Suggs cannot just pin his ears back and rush the quarterback every play. The read option requires patience and discipline of defensive ends and linebackers, just ask the Packers D. Despite everything Kaepernick has shown us in the playoffs, I believe the Ravens best bet is to force Kaepernick to beat them with his arm. All know is that if you can stop Tom Brady’s arm, stopping Kaepernick can never be out of the question.

49ers - No team has the big play ability and the ability to control the ball like the San Francisco 49ers. In the past two games, the 49ers have gained over a thousand yards, and in their first playoff game against the Packers, they possessed the ball for 38 minutes compared to the Packers 22 minutes. This offense is rolling on all cylinders, with a balanced attack. This team lives and dies by Kaepernick offensively. His speed and athletic ability freezes edge defenders, opening jump cuts for Frank Gore and the play action pass as well. If Kaepernick is able to hit his passes early, I don’t see how the Ravens will be able to stop any part of this offense.

          

Defensively, the 49ers main priority is to take Ray Rice out of the game, both rushing and receiving wise. I know Flacco has been playing out of his mind, but when he passes the ball more than 40 times a game, the Ravens are just 2-3. The 49ers have the best starting group of linebackers in the league, and they can both stop the run and rush the passer. If they can stop Rice early, they will be able to rush Flacco and force either a fumble or interception. It’s hard to be physical at the line with a freak like Anquan Boldin, and I see the 49ers playing him with bracket coverage, not allowing Flacco to hit the big play. 

-Will Noglows

Follow Will @WilliamNoglows

Follow the IceBath Team @IceBathReport

Chris's Mailbag: #2

Wow. What a week. I don’t even know which way is up anymore. Manti Te’o’s girlfriend (the love of his life) never existed…Lance Armstrong admits (if that’s what you want to call that performance) to using performance-enhancing drugs and doping. O, and we also have two conference championship games this Sunday AND the NHL resumes/begins it’s season on Saturday.

God I love sports.

Sometimes I wish I was blessed with more athletic ability—more than my 5’9 165 pound frame, with no vertical leap, no flexibility, and minimal physical gifts that is.

But then I realize how foolish I am. I enjoy analyzing and dissecting them all so much more. We have a lot to cover so let’s get started!

How truthful do you think I was in the first part of my interview with Oprah Winfrey last night?

--L. Armstrong, Marriot Hotel

I took the entire interview (as of this I have only seen the first part) as extremely half-hearted. I took it as “if I admit to doing it maybe people will get off my back, but I don’t want them to know how much of a true asshole I am”.

I also wasn't buying a lot of the smoke you blew up our asses. I’m putting it as maybe 50% truthful? Lance Armstong has no credibility. He lied for 15 years. Why should we believe everything he says now? Thanks for admitting to PED’s and doping…but it’s very late for that, don’t you think?

Armstrong claims he didn’t bully his teammates into doping yet he also said that he didn’t think doping/PED’s was cheating at the time? That he wouldn’t be able to win if he didn’t use them? Give me a break. Don’t insult our intelligence Lance.

A poll just popped up on ESPN. About 36% said that the interview changed their opinion for the worse. I can’t decide where I am yet.

A lot of it was “Yeaaaaa…BUTTT…” or “I mean….I don’t know about THAT…” or “That is true, but THAT isn’t true.”

There are many complexities to all of this…Armstong giving and offering donations to anti-doping agencies which suggests that he was using money to protect himself…accounts of threatening teammates and investigators…suing people and ruining them for telling the truth…I won’t get into it all because once again, it is very complex. I don’t have the resources or haven’t sat down to examine it all, but I have heard enough to develop an opinion.

Armstrong lied a lot for 15 years, and he lied a lot again tonight.

Taylor Swift or Mila Kunis?

--S. Kessler (@SKessler11)

What a welcomed change of pace Steve. This question breaks my heart. Well really, Taylor Swift breaks my heart. What we can appreciate about both these girls: they are both naturally beautiful. They don’t have those Victoria’s Secret bodies or flaunt their obnoxious breast implants.

Taylor has the blonde hair-blue eyes combo that I am the biggest sucker for. She is that celebrity that seems so accessible because of her innocence, and so many (like myself) fall in love with her. Not to mention like her music. But her social life really weirds me out. She has dated back-to-back 18 year-olds…including a One Direction kid? Ugh. I don’t like it..

For me, Mila is #1 in the world so she gets the nod. Just a drop dead gorgeous woman and she doesn’t have to wear a drop of makeup, as opposed to Taylor who tends to pour it on. Mila’s eyes are criminal. And when I just saw this picture, I didn’t have to think any further.

Are you more comfortable in the shoes of Matt Ryan against the 49ers, or Tom Brady against the Ravens and Ray Lewis right now?

--W. Noglows (@WilliamNoglows)

Well what a better time for me to welcome Will to the Ice Bath team! (Applause)

If you haven’t, check out his first column.

Back to the question, I’m more comfortable in Tom Brady’s shoes. To be honest, I am not comfortable in either of their quandaries this Sunday. But that answer is more general than specific to these opposing defenses. Brady doesn’t have much to prove. The man has three super bowls, three MVP titles, eight Pro Bowls, her.

I do however, think this game will be extremely close and that the Ravens have a very good chance at winning this game. If I had any money to gamble with, I would be all over the 8.5 points the Ravens are currently getting. Brady has no Gronk which obviously significantly hurts their offense, but their running game this year is much improved, and the emergence of the nimble Shane Vereen last week poses some new challenges for the Ravens. Bottom line, Brady has done more with less against more. This Ravens defense isn’t what they used to be, and they weren’t exactly stellar against the Broncos last week.

On the other hand, Matt Ryan has everything to prove. He is facing a second year Quarterback after he just escaped with his first playoff win despite his rookie counterpart playing much better than himself. This 49ers defense is vicious—much 

better, faster, and more physical than the Ravens. If Ryan doesn’t deliver in this game, the “not a big game performer” will still loom over him.

All eyes on you, Matt Ryan.

What do you have to say now, bitch?

--C. Kaepernick, San Francisco

This question alludes to my prediction that the move to make Kaepernick starter will eventually hurt the 9ers and cost them a Super Bowl. I even hoped Alex Smith would get another chance.

I was licking my chops when the Broncos-Ravens game in OT cut to Kaepernick throwing a pick-six.

See! I told you!!

We all know what happened after that. Kaepernick rebounded with one of the most impressive playoff performances in recent memory. He accounted for 444 yards and tantalized Green Bay’s defense.

For now, I was wrong. I was very impressed with Colin Kaepernick last Saturday night.

I realized two things watching Kaepernick play fully for the first time: 1) He is REALLYfast and 2) He is a much better thrower than I originally surmised. In fact, he was an exceptional passer last week. He has turned Michael Crabtree from bust to boom, he has opened up additional running lanes for Frank Gore with the read-option, and his own running ability causes headaches for opposing defenses.

Right now, the NFL has no answer for the read-option offense with freaks like Kaepernick and RG3. I doubt Atlanta’s porous defense will either.

I’m taking San Fran on the road. Just much the better team…as long as Kaepernick doesn’t fold in the dome.

What do we make of this Manti Te’o story?

--Everyone, United States of America

As a 20 year-old sports enthusiast, this is the most bizarre story that I have ever come across. And I spent a good hour pondering, trying to find something as perplexing as this. I just couldn’t.

So, the whole thing with Te’o: Not only was he the nation’s top defensive player, the best player and captain of Notre Dame football, the leading contributor the resurgence of Notre Dame football, and a Heisman finalist…but he did all of this battling unfathomable emotions when he was alerted of the death of his grandmother, and then his girlfriend six hours later. What resolve this young man showed.

We now know, that although his grandmother did pass away, his alleged girlfriend never existed.

This is where it all gets dicey. The theories pile on. He claims to have been duped, a victim of a sick joke by an even sicker individual. Even AFTER he found out that she wasn’t real on December 6^th, there are multiple instances where Te’o references his ‘girlfriend’ through the media.

And if you have been watching ESPN at all these past couple days, you have seen the October interview where Te’o describes in a convincingly evocative tone, the painful nightly phone calls, the “love of his life,” the feeling of when the phone went silent, what a great person she was, what a better person ‘she’ made him.

It was just too weird.

Something isn’t right.

Te’o rode this story to the bitter end, even after he became aware that she never existed. He continued to use the inspiring story as a vehicle to contribute to the legend of Manti Te’o, a legend that boasted triumph over unimaginable tragedy.

Te’o lied to us all, duped us all, even though he claims to have been the victim. Why though? I don’t know if I can buy the “to get more publicity, to gain sympathy and feed into the story” theory. Why would he need more publicity? I just don’t get it. If that’s true Manti Te’o has serious issues and countless questions to answer, questions from reporters and NFL teams that are evaluating his ability as a player (Alabama made him look like a scrub) and his overall character.

Could it be…Is Te’o that naïve? To claim someone that he never saw, to be the love of his life? The man is 21 years-old, a First Team Academic All-American, he has to be smarter than this, right? Te’o is the captain of Notre Dame football, a good-looking kid, yet he subjected himself to an online girlfriend for three years? It’s not like he would have any trouble getting girls. Wouldn’t a guy that carries a GPA in the ballpark of 3.4 know that the public would eventually discover this?

But he is also a Mormon, and seems to be a man of passionate faith, which spins things yet again. Maybe this kind of behavior (having an online girlfriend) isn’t that weird for him.

And then we throw in that Te’o’s dad claimed that this mystery girl visited Te’o in Hawaii and on another occasion. Something is going on here, I smell a rat. There is something more to this.

Hopefully, one of his teammates who knows something speaks up. Hopefully someone, anyone who knows something speaks up.

Hopefully Manti Te’o speaks up.

-Chris Collins

Follow Chris @ChrisCollins127

Follow the Ice Bath team @IceBathReport

Submit questions for Chris’s next mailbag via Twitter, or email him at ccollinsjr@comcast.net

Will's Pilot

Russell Wilson: A Junior Varsity Quarterback’s Hero

Hello Readers,

My name is William Noglows, and I am proud to join Chris and PJ on the Ice Bath Report. I am a three year Varsity Football Letterman. I know what it’s like to be at the bottom of a pile after a fumble, to call an audible at the line of scrimmage when noticing the defense brought down a safety into the box, and the feeling of throwing the game winning touchdown passes.

I also know that I am lying through my teeth right now. My real high school football career comprised of me holding kicks, getting obliterated while forming the wedge during kick returns, and missing tackles on the punt team. People called me the Steve Tasker of my generation (Put him in the HOF!) One more thing, I am regarded as the most electrifying JV Quarterback in my high school’s history, and it was me, not RGIII or Russell Wilson, that brought back the read-option to football.

Due to my extreme bias for the Giants, this article will exclude RGIII as a renaissance man of the read-option. Actually, I just don’t feeling like thinking of all the ways that Robert Griffin will make life living hell for Giants fans during the next 15 years. So I will instead talk about a quarterback who I enjoy watching every Sunday, and thankfully only plays the Giants once every three years. Russell Wilson.

It’s funny to think that Russell Wilson was supposed to be either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin’s back up. Both Ryan Grigson of the Colts and Bruce Allen of the Redskins admitted that if Wilson were available at either pick 92 or 102, they would have taken him. If this actually happened, Russell Wilson would have been remembered as the next Jim Sorgi (career backup to Peyton Manning). Thankfully, the Seahawks snagged America’s Favorite Underdog at pick 75.

It is easy to see why so many teams doubted Wilson at the start. Standing at only 5 foot 10, the only thing that separates Wilson and myself is 1 inch and 1 playoff victory (regular season victories mean nothing in the NFL nowadays, just ask Matt Ryan). Mel Kiper Jr was quoted saying: “He can throw on the move and is a good leader… but at fewer than six feet, it'll hurt him and push him way down the board.” Wilson was a quarterback of a different breed, much like, dare I say it, Tim Tebow. Unsurprisingly, this scared the shit out of most GMs.

But then came the Seattle Seahawks and their vicious defense, and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch running the read-option (and Sidney Rice dropping many passes). Unless you have been living under a rock these past few weeks, you know that before this weekend, the Seahawks had taken the NFL by storm, and Wilson propelled himself to the top of the Rookie of the Year ballot. While Wilson was getting it done with his arm (most touchdowns ever thrown by a rookie) and his legs (5.2 yards per rush), it was what everyone noticed at first that led his team to the playoffs. His unselfishness and leadership.

I was lucky enough to watch Wilson play in his first playoff game against the Redskins. Wilson absolutely thrashed the Skins throughout the entire game, but what I remember most is not a pass or run by him, but a block. After handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch on a read-option run, Wilson sprinted 25 yards downfield to block a defensive back, allowing Lynch to score a touchdown. I don’t ever remember seeing a quarterback do this. This is what makes Russell Wilson so special. This is what makes him every JV Quarterback’s hero.

-William Noglows

Follow Will @WilliamNoglows

Follow the IceBath team @IceBathReport

NFL Divisional Weekend

Don’t you Just Love Football?

How great was this weekend? Whether you are a Giant fan…Jet fan…whatever fan…what a weekend of football. Let's start with the first game which captivated us all.

Ravens 38 Broncos 35

I tweeted this, but just to reiterate, this game definitely is up there with one of the most enjoyable and entertaining sporting events I have ever witnessed in which I had no dog in the fight. I am a Peyton Manning fan, but I also found myself pulling for Joe Flacco as the “trying to prove to everybody that I can actually do this” underdog story. Which leads me to…

Look, Joe Flacco is what he is. He can be wildly inaccurate…he’s not going to win many games on pure passing aptitude, and he will always have those throws where you have to look to your football-watching-companion and say, “Wait, is it me or did he just throw that 20-30 feet over that guy’s head?”

Flacco has been blessed his entire career with an elite defense and exceptional running game. Critics have awarded him the dreaded “game manager” label because of his inability to win games on his own a la Aaron Rodgers…Tom Brady..etc. Many say that the Ravens are a Super Bowl team hampered by average Quarterback play. I am not exactly doing keg-stands from the Joe Flacco kool-aid—and in the first three years of his career, I wouldn’t dispute that the Ravens were winning despite minimal contribution from Flacco, and perhaps they were bridled by his mediocre-to-below-average-to-awful play.

Example: In 2009, Baltimore hammered New England AT New England 33-14, while Flacco went 4/10 for 34yards and 1 int. Rice and McGahee rushed for over 200 yards and Brady threw 3 picks. They then loss to Manning’s Colts in the Divisional Round, when Flacco threw two picks and finished 20 of 35 and 189 yards—only leading the Ravens to three points.

But last year, Flacco showcased some maturity when he played one of the best games of his life in New England, against maybe the greatest quarterback of all time with a Super Bowl birth on the line. A game where he was a dropped Lee Evans touchdown pass away from winning the game, and a Billy Cundiff missed 32-yard chip shot from at least pushing it to overtime.

And once again, in the biggest game of his life (considering his contract is up after the season, and possible status as Baltimore’s franchise QB), Flacco outperformed the other “maybe the greatest quarterback of all time” candidate. He displayed his greatest attribute—the ability to throw the deep ball, when he connected with Jacoby Jones(despite Rahim Moore’s incompetence) to tie the game in the final minute. Even if Rahim Moore didn’t play that ball like Josh Hamilton, not many quarterbacks in the league could have made that throw, if any at all. I counted 52 yards in the air, while under duress and a hand in his face.

Flacco’s performance earned himself quite a few million dollars—if not from the Ravens, the Chiefs, Cardinals, Eagles, and Jaguars (maybe Jets?) were all watching and would be happy to bid for his services. However, I think this win solidified his future as the franchise quarterback in Baltimore.

He will now make his third attempt to win a conference championship game and reach the Super Bowl, in the biggest game of his life, against maybe the greatest quarterback of all time…

Again.

---------------

This question came in overtime from one my most avid readers (@WilliamNoglows):

If the Broncos lose this game, is Peyton Manning’s season seen as a success or failure regarding his injury and new team?

Given the severity of Peyton’s injury, the fact that he missed an entire year of football, the fact that he will likely will win the MVP, had the second best season of his career, led his team to eleven straight wins, a 13-3 record, and a #1 seed—is remarkable.

This is where I start tripping over myself. None of us could begin to understand the amount of work Peyton put in just to be able to play this year. Endless rehab…rebuilding arm strength…getting back to playing shape.

The easy answer: success. Just look at the credentials. However, I say that with so tentatively my stomach turns. Not even kidding. Do I have the balls to call this season a failure? Is Peyton Manning held to that high of a standard?

As long as Rahim Moore does his job, we aren’t even having this conversation, right?

But god, throwing across your body right smack in the middle of the field (the number 1 no-no for quarterback), the eventual fatal error for your season.

Maybe it was a failure.

(Thinks about what he is doing)

(Thinks more)

It almost sounds silly. Rebounding after four neck surgeries, playing THAT well during the regular season with an entirely new team, after some doubted he could ever play again.

But by mid-season, when Manning resumed to doing Peyton Manning things, many of us reverted to holding Peyton Manning to Peyton Manning standard. Is that right? I don’t know. Probably not. He is the greatest regular season quarterback of all time, and this is borderline indubitable.

I changed my mind, it isn’t borderline indubitable, it is indubitable.

However, Manning’s playoff resume falls well short of greatness and bellows monumental disappointment. Two of the worst performances of his career came against rival Tom Brady in the playoffs. He lost to San Diego back to back years in 2007 and 2008, one of them being at home. He also lost to the mighty Mark Sanchez and the the New York Jets in 2010.

Once again, I am criticizing someone who has won a Super Bowl, reached another, and owns the most decorated regular season resume of any quarterback in the history of football. But that is what makes Peyton Manning so tantalizing. His skill set, his unprecedented knowledge of the game, the barrage of jaw-dropping throws like this—he has every right to be the best quarterback of all time. He should be. But playoff failures restrict him from earning that title without argument. That’s a debate for a different day.

Back to the point, Peyton Manning played great football on Sunday. There have been times throughout his career where he has played good playoff football but still lost, there have been times where he has played really bad football and lost, and times where he played well but not “Peyton Manning football”.

You can go in so many directions to assign blame for this Denver loss. The first being Rahim Moore, the second being John Fox for being inexplicably conservative at the end of halftime and at the end of regulation. No one is completely culpable. What if Fox gave Manning the go with 36 seconds left until half with all three timeouts remaining? What if he did the same at the end of regulation with 31 seconds left and two timeouts?

Are we still having this conversation?

Bottom line, what Peyton Manning achieved this season is amazing. In fact, it was statistically the second best season of his career. Many of us are having a hard time coming to grips that he was outperformed by Joe Flacco at home in a playoff game, and choose to dawn on Manning’s repeated shortcomings in January and on. However, I don’t think we can sit here and call it a failure.

Let’s face it, another year to reach full recovery, another year work with two tremendously talented receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, another year to break in Ronnie Hillman, and another year for the fearsome Denver pass rush to mature, the Denver Broncos will be the favorite (and my bet) to win the Super Bowl next year.

If they don’t, then that will be a failure.

-Chris Collins

Follow Chris @ChrisCollins127

Follow Chris and PJ @IceBathReport