Kentucky Derby

The Breakdown from Handicapper Chris

For casual fans around the globe, the Kentucky Derby is a chance to hone in on a foreign sport for one day out of the year — a chance to celebrate and recognize a majestic sport that was once a prominent piece of American culture, but now buried in the cellar in the American sports landscape of popularity.

Hardcore horse racing fans and handicappers will have a different opinion on the Derby. The Derby represents a handicapper’s worst nightmare. The twenty-horse race is a two-minute morass of chaos and struggle — jockeys looking and begging for room, bumping into each other; in most cases, the winner needs a tremendous amount of luck and is not always the best horse in the race.

Simply put: nobody knows anything. Handicapping skills go out the window (mostly) for the Kentucky Derby. You can handicap the race perfectly, but if your horse gets caught up in the 20-horse mess, if he misses the break, if he get’s bumped and pinned on the rail…it could be all over.

For example: In 2001 — Point Given—arguably the greatest horse of this century, fell victim to an absolute torrid pace duel. He went faster than accustomed in the first half of the race, and also fell victim to the eventual winner Monarchos, who ran the absolute race of his life on that day.

Point Given went on to win the Preakness, the Belmont in triumphant fashion, and then two more Grade 1 races (Haskell and Travers) before retiring. Point Given was clearly the best horse in the Kentucky Derby that year, but like in any sport, he was not the best on that day. This is especially common in the chaotic enigma that is the Kentucky Derby.

My Story

I have yet to meet a person my age that shares the same passion for Horse Racing. I understand why — outside of once or twice a summer where the 20-somethings will flock to the track for big days to get annihilated, the sport just doesn’t get much attention anymore. But, I have been doing this for a very long time. I've had a racing form in my hand since I was 5 years-old. I truly love this game.

Although I am mostly avid-handicapper, I am also a general fan of the sport. And for a sport that I love, I desperately hope that some form of superstar horse can bring back some excitement for America to enjoy again, a Triple Crown winner would be most ideal. A feat that I would argue is among the toughest in sports, something that hasn’t been done since 1978 when Affirmed was the last King in the sport of Kings. Since then, the Breeders Cup has been added to the racing schedule, a now two day event that represents the Super Bowl for the sport for all divisions of racing, dirt, turf, sprinters, long distance…everything.

Those two days are a handicapper’s paradise, racing that is more fair and clear to come up with winners, but still presents the opportunity to make money with long shots that still have a chance to win.

But still, the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Derby in particular is the most widely celebrated and recognized part of modern-America’s scope of horse racing. Even if the race isn’t necessarily fair on handicappers, I think we would all trade in losing tickets for a chance to see a star emerge and finally accomplish the Triple Crown feat that the sport so desperately needs.

So now the question is, who is going to win?

Like I said, this race is a nightmare for bettors. So many Derby factors exist on top of the dozens of factors that all handicappers already consider. Post-position can be the death of a horse…many will lose the race in the first 100 yards. Nevertheless, I have broken down the Run for the Roses with my handicapping insight.

Here are the 9 horses who I think have the best chance to win, not necessarily in order. Some I like more than others, some of them are backed by the general public but I don't like them at all. My comments will tell you how I feel about them. The forecast on race day calls for some showers, but it doesn’t seem that it will affect the track’s condition to any large degree, but I incorporated that angle into my analysis just in case.

I should also note that many handicappers will use Beyer speed figures as a way to measure a horse. To be honest, I have found that looking at Beyer numbers in Grade 1 races has led me to more bad decisions than good. So for this day, I am ignoring them all together. So if that's a major part of your handicapping game, you can either I ignore what I have to say, or hopefully I provide you with some different angles and you can interpret them the way in which you please.

Let's get to it.

The Cream of the Crop

16 Orb

ML: 7/2

Trainer: Shug Mcgaughey

Jockey: Joel Rosario

The likely post-time favorite deserves it. This son of Malibu Moon is undefeated in his 3 year-old campaign, including a Fountain of Youth victory over a once highly-touted Pletcher hopeful Violence, and a Florida Derby romp over Derby contender Itsmyluckyday and the 2 year-old champion Shanghai Bobby. In the latter, he was five wide on the turn and still won in hand. Mcgaughey has been boasting about this colt ever since that win, saying he has never had a horse improve so much in such a little time span, as well as expressing his excitement over his work on the Churchill Downs surface. By all accounts, he looked like a stud in that work. His sire was lightly raced, but his granddaddy is A.P. Indy, whose credentials as a runner and sire are well known. The dam is by Unbridled, who won the Derby in 1990. So the resume and pedigree is all there, not to mention the Florida Derby has been one of the most successful Derby preps in terms of producing winners, (3 since 2000). He drew the 16 hole, which isn’t bad as long as he’s not caught way wide on the first turn. By all accounts, he looks like a horse ready to run the race of his life. It’s up to Rosario and racing luck to get this one home. The one to beat.

14 Verrazano

ML: 4-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

You cannot ignore any horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Velazquez, let alone one that has not lost in his career. This More Than Ready colt broke his maiden on the 1^st of the new year, and since followed with wins in a one mile allowance, then the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial. He was flattered when the Tampa Bay runner-up Java’s War came back and won the Blue Grass. The Wood wasn’t exactly full of slouches either, when he fought off a challenge from the formerly undefeated Vyjack, and held off a late run from Normandy Invasion, both well-respected opponents. If there is a negative, he embodies the typical Pletecher 3 year-old who has had everything his way up to this point…being on or just off the lead. This horse has never faced any trouble or adversity, which is almost impossible to avoid on Derby day. There will certainly be other speed, so he will have to work much harder in the early stages. Not to mention, his pedigree doesn’t exactly scream distance, as More Than Ready failed to win at over a mile in his career. The last Wood Memorial winner to follow up with a Derby win was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and the last horse to win the Derby without racing at age 2 was in 1882. Yea. At a short price, I am not crazy about him, but he very well could be a freak. Must respect.

3 Revolutionary (The Pick)

ML: 10-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Pletcher and Borel teamed up to strike gold on Derby Day in 2008 when they won with post-time favorite Super Saver. This son of War Pass will most likely be the second choice of the six Pletcher colts entered, and should be the 4th or 5^th choice come post-time. The sire was the 2007 2yo champion, with the dam Runup the Colors winning at a mile and a quarter, who is also by A.P. Indy. Grandsire is Cherokee Run who doesn’t exactly say distance…but this colt has improved with every stretch out and has not gotten a clean enough trip to show everything he has in the tank. To the resume, he broke his maiden just before the new year, then ran into all kinds of trouble in the Withers in his first graded stakes attempt. Despite being completely stymied in the stretch, a small hole opened, and he showed a tremendous burst of acceleration in the final sixteenth of a mile to win. In my opinion, that move was the most impressive run in any of the Derby prep races. In the Louisiana , he broke slow and was forced into the six path on the turn while making his move (showing easy acceleration when asked again), then was seemingly caught by Mylute at the bottom of the stretch, only to fight back and prevail for the win. That last race was on 3/30, giving him five weeks of rest for this tilt. Steady worktab, and has showed to be a fearless horse and is now given a fearless jockey. Loved the tenacity and competitiveness he showed in that LA Derby win, and no horse has overcome the trouble this guy has. He did draw the 3 hole which is usually not where you want to be, but with Calvin Borail in the irons  it should not be a problem. He has what I call "push button speed," meaning when you ask him to run, he shoots out of a cannon. He has shown not only elite ability, but he is willing to go to war in order to win. His best is yet to come, just needs that rail to open up for him. The pick.

Next Tier

8 Goldencents

ML: 5-1

Trainer: Doug O’Neil

Jockey: Kevin Krigger

Last year’s winning trainer is back at it again with another SA Derby victor and another no-name jockey. He received a 105 beyer for that effort at SA Effort, although he did have the absolute perfect trip and beat a less-than-flattering field. The West Coast crop of 3 yo’s is a little bit of a mystery this year, and definitely not as strong as previous years. The last time a trainer won back-to-back derby’s was in 1998, when Bob Baffert repeated with Real Quiet after Silver Charm’s 1997 win. I tend to layoff horses that are coming off career best efforts, and as I mentioned earlier, I would prefer a horse that is ready to pop…ala Animal Kingdom in 2011. This one isn’t exactly bred for distance, but figures to be right in the thick of things from the start, the question is: How long can he stay there? No works over the Churchill surface also don’t make me crazy about him. Going to bet against the chances of O’Neil repeating, passing but is a huge pace player.

5 Normandy Invasion

ML: 12-1

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

This horse kills me. Every time I think he’s ready to pop, he comes up short. Yet I keep betting him. I also have an affinity for closers, and this one is just that – although he sat closer in the Wood Memorial, and in his latest work, Brown had him go the first quarter mile faster than the last quarter of a mile. He could just be a morning warrior, three straight bullet works before the Wood couldn’t get him over the hump. But a recent 5F move over the Churchill surface in :59 flat would suggest he is razor sharp. Maybe Brown is trying to train some early speed into him. This son of Tapit broke slow in the Remsen and was flying at the end, only to come up short to Overanalyze. Then he missed the break in the Risen Star, commenced a rally but was all over the track and didn’t hit his best stride until it was far too late. In the Wood, Verrazano had everything his way, with Normandy once again finding his best stride late and coming up short, and actually passed Verrazano after the wire — which could suggest he wants the extra eighth of a mile. His sire Tapit was victorious in his Wood Memorial try, with the grandsire Pulpit winning the Blue Grass and carrying the A.P. Indy blood line. The female side isn’t exactly distance flattering; but what makes this horse even more puzzling his Castellano’s decision to ride him. Castellano had the option to ride Revolutionary, but he chose this one. Now, this may be me reading too far into things, because Castellano could very well just be honoring a bigger commitment to Chad Brown as opposed to Pletcher. Castellano is the no-doubt first call for Brown, who is young trainer on the rise, while he normally defers to John Velazquez for first-call when it comes to Pletcher horses. So this may be a case where he may not have chose the best horse, but made a decision to benefit the future of his career. But then again…maybe he thinks he has a better chance to win, and Castellano’s opinion carries great weight. Regardless the reasoning…I once again won’t be able to avoid him in my plays, maybe he is finally ready to pop, maybe is a closer that just can never seem to get there. Most agonizing horse in the field for me, but I can’t abandon him now.

19 Java’s War

ML: 15-1

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Another killer for me. I was all over this horse in the Blue Grass after watching his huge move in the Tampa Bay Derby, when he catapulted across the field but failed to catch Verrazano. That move on the turn though showed that he has kick and was ready to improve, which he did just that in the Blue Grass, coming from last to first in the stretch to power home and catch Palace Malice. He undoubtedly showed that when asked, he can move. But, was that his “pop” race on the poly? You want to bet Derby horses that are ready for the best effort of their career, not those who have already done. I also fear that he is a “poly freak,” a horse that loves the synthetic track, usually conducive to closers. But Churchill isn’t exactly a speedway either, and I have chalked up 4 of the last 10 Derby winners to be dead closers. However, the worst effort of his career came on the Churchill surface, albeit as a 2 year old. I’ll Have Another won last year’s Derby from this same post, if the pace is hot and the Blue Grass was no fluke…he will be coming late.Dangerous.

 6 Mylute

ML: 15-1

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

You will see plenty of talk about this horse, as Amoss has called on the Derby Darling to take the mount. He has been steadily gaining steam from the betting public, and it wouldn’t shock me if he is an underlay simply because of the “Rosie Factor.” All Hollywood aside, Rosie is one of the best jockeys in the country and warrants respect, not to mention this horse just continues to improve, and his stock only climbs more if the track is wet. His sire Midnight Lute triumphed home in the Breeders Cup Sprint over the slop at Monmouth in 2007, and despite being a sprinter, his offspring have shown the ability to go long. In the LA Derby, he may have benefitted from the fast pace in the LA Derby, when he passed Revolutionary in the stretch but was unable to hold on. He ran that race with blinkers off and a changed running style, coming from well off the pace like his sire instead of staying close like his Risen Star effort, when he was in perfect striking range on the turn but just came up empty. That effort was also his first of the year and off a layoff, so he obviously needed the race. Overall, he was beaten by only a neck to Revolutionary who will certainly be the lower price, and is gaining steam and generating some buzz down the Churchill backstretch, and definitely catching the eyes of the bettors. The worry is that he had every reason to beat Revolutionary but he lost focus in the stretch once he got hold of the lead. He now boasts four works over the Churchill surface and definitely seems to be coming into his own and into peak fitness. He’s live.

 10 Palace Malice

ML: 20-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Mike Smith

Another Pletcher horse and another legitimate contender. After breaking his maiden last August, he didn’t return to the track until January, where he has not won in any of his four tries this year. However, we can only assume he needed that first race, in which he followed with a nice rally and effort in the Risen Star but was all over the place in the stretch in a race that completely broke down, where he ended up succumbing to 135-1 longshot I’ve Struck a Nerve. Then in the LA Derby he never got a chance to run and was completely blocked for the entire stretch. If you watch, Edgar Prado never moved his hands and or even remotely asked the horse for run, so that race was essentially a mile and an eighth workout. Then he goes into the Bluegrass, possibly ready for a big effort, again shows to be a little green by bouncing around while having the lead in the stretch, only to be caught in the last strides by Java’s War. However, he hung close to a hot pace in that race in which he was used up a little early and he clearly did not like the surface. If you put a line through the Lousiana, he has not been beaten by more than a length in both of his stakes tries. Sire Curlin was lightly raced coming into the Triple Crown, and ended up finishing 3^rd in the ’07 Derby, winning the Preakness, and then finishing 2^nd in the Belmont, then going on to have a stellar career at Classic distances. If it rains, one of Curlin’s victories came in the slop when he romped a very accomplished BC Classic field — the same slop in which Midnight Lute and War Pass were clear winners. The damsire ran at a mile and a half multiple times, albeit on the turf.  Bred to run all day, and he will come from off the pace but can also be close enough to avoid the worst of the trouble. He also was foaled later than others, with his 3^rd birthday coming just two days before the Derby, which could explain some of the greenness. (Sound like Curlin doesn’t it?). He will only have 3 weeks rest, but his 4f move on 4/27 shows that he is perked up coming in and may take a liking to the track. Blinkers are a possibility, which could keep him more focused in the stretch. Not saying he is as talented as Curlin, but I have a feeling his best is yet to come and he will come at a good price. Hall of fame rider Mike Smith getting this assignment and drawing post 10 only adds to the appeal. Added distance should help, the possible addition of blinkers should help, and I think he is coming into form and ready for the biggest effort of his career. I think he this one could be the sneaky bastard of the field and you will get a nice price on him.

12 Itsmyluckyday

ML: 15-1

Trainer: Eddie Plesa

Jockey: Elvis Trujuillo

Out of everyone in this field, this guys seems to be the veteran, already with 10 races under his belt and 3 stakes since November of last year. He’s won half of those races and finished in the money in 3 others, so he almost always shows up. Both times that he finished out of the money, he was caught very wide on the far turn. He certainly showed his talent in 2013 when he romped in the Gulfstream Park Derby and then came back with a huge effort in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, where he demolished Shanghai Bobby. He took two months off before his final prep, the Florida Derby, where he seemed to have dead aim on Verrazano but simply didn’t have enough to get him. The more concerning part was that he had a tough time holding off the third place finisher who was coming out of sprint races as opposed to routes. He’s sired by Lawyer Ron who struggled at a mile and a quarter. Slow final work at Calder and no works over the Churchill surface aren’t too encouraging. However, if this horse returns to his form that he displayed in January with his two wins, then he is a major contender to win this race. His stalking style from the 12 hole should put him in a good position…don’t overlook.

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So there you have it folks, that’s my Kentucky Derby analysis. Even if you have no interest in horse racing…everyone has to make at least one bet on the First Saturday in May.

Good luck.

-Chris Collins

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