Beating the Bracket: A Guide to Winning March Madness

March Madness is upon us and I could not be more excited — an exciting, epic, drama-filled 3 weeks that will determine the NCAA Men’s Basketball champion. I feel like it is Christmas but Santa is Jay Bilas.

No matter who you are,  whether you know anything about college basketball, whether you watch every game religiously, you have heard of “The Bracket.” The bracket is singly handily the hardest task to predict. The possibilities are endless. Will this be the year a #16 seed beats a #1? Who will be the sleeper team to reach the Sweet 16? Who are the Davidson’s? Who are the Steph Curry’s? Who are the Virginia Commonwealth’s? Will I need the doctor to check my blood pressure when this tournament is over? All of these questions will run through your mind when filling out your bracket.

Have no fear, Dan is here.

I have some experience with brackets. I did win a pool for a couple hundred dollars, so I have had my share of success. Then again, I was the idiot to pick Missouri to win the National Championship last year. Needless to say, #15 Norfolk State had to ruin my day and my chances of winning $2500 (I am still bitter to this day).

Now there is no right or wrong way to fill out the brackets, but I am going to give you some tips and preferences that might aid you in choosing your selections.

Pick a Team that won their Conference: Contrary to popular belief, Conference Tournaments do matter. They serve as a preview to how teams will play in a bracket-style tournament. I can make the argument that it is actually harder to win your conference than it is to win the NCAA Tournament. In 2011, before winning the title, UConn was the first team ever to win the Big East Tournament after playing for all 5 days. That means Kemba Walker had to endure 40 minutes of hell, win the game, go to sleep, and do it again for 5 straight days. It was truly magical. Since 2000, 9 of the 13 National Champions won their Conference Tournament. Trust the hot teams, they will not let you down.

Avoid an all #1 Seed Final Four: Yes, #1 Seeds are the safest bet. Yes, they will most likely get to the Sweet 16, unless they happen to run into Butler. But for all #1 Seeds to make the Final 4 is almost impossible. It has only happened once (2008), where Kansas beat Memphis in an overtime classic to win the title. Mix it up, add a #2 or #3 seed in there, but beware of #1. They are not always the answer.

Perfection will NEVER Happen: I don’t want to sound like Captain Obvious, but frankly, people forget this lesson. Let me say this loud and clear, YOU WILL NEVER HAVE A PERFECT BRACKET. Let me say that again, YOU WILL NEVER HAVE A PERFECT BRACKET. The odds of a perfect bracket are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1. You will lose games. Stay positive. If upsets happen, they will happen. Just remember that people in your pool probably had the same picks, so just ride the storm and you will be fine.

 Blue is Beautiful: When it comes to choosing a champion, pick a team that has blue in it. The last 9 champions have had some shade of blue in their uniforms. Now some of you might argue that Florida is mostly orange, but their letters and away uniforms are blue. Sorry fans of Louisville, Indiana, and Michigan State. It is better to be Duke and Gonzaga in March. If you choose blue, you will not feel “blue” when the Final Four rolls around.

Pick the #12 over #5 Upset: Since 1989, a #12 seed has beaten a #5 Seed. It has become a rule, not just a weird coincidence. Something about the 5-12 matchup just screams upset. I have no idea what it is, but #12 seeds just come to play that day. The popular pick seems to be #12 Oregon over #5 Oklahoma State. Frankly, I’m leaning towards that pick. #12 will not let you down (at least once that is).

Fill Out Multiple Brackets: Everyone wants to be the guy to have the winning bracket. If you find yourself in a nationwide pool, I would bet my life savings that the winner filled out multiple brackets. I get it — people want to be admirable and invest all of their wits into one bracket. My advice to you: put the most money (BET RESPONSIBLY) into your “best bracket” or the one you invested the most time in. Then, fill out some other brackets and enter different leagues to increase your chances. I am not saying you will win, but your chances dramatically rise in your favor.

Never Bet Against Tom Izzo: There is something about Tom Izzo and March that just makes sense. Izzo has won 37 tournament games, including the 2000 National Championship. His Michigan State teams have been to six Final Fours since 2000, and has only lost in the first round 3 out of 15 times. The guy flat out knows how to coach in March. Bet against him and he will make you pay.

Do Not Get Upset Happy: Everyone wants to be that guy to say, “Hey, I called that upset!” Yes, that is a great feeling. Picking a first round or even second round upset is more luck than skill, but a feat that can be accomplished. The problem occurs when you want to pick the Butler’s or VCU’s of the tournament. What Butler did a few years ago is undeniably one of the greatest accomplishments in college basketball history. A mid major that reached the National Championship not once, but TWICE, in back to back years????? Unheard of. And honestly, I don’t think it will ever happen again. Be the smart gambler. The #1, #2, and #3 seeds have won 90% of all tournament champions. Don’t be a hero, pick the favorite.

Good Coaching Matters: You always hear the phrase, “Pick them, they’ve been there before.” To a point, this is true. Coaches with previous Final Four experience usually end up in the Final Four. Each of the last five Final Fours has had at least three coaches with previous Final Four experience. In the past 13 years, the 2006 Final Four was the only year to feature only 1 coach with Final Four experience. This is not always a guarantee, but it is likely that Pitino, Krzyzewski, Donovan, Crean, Thompson, Larranaga, Self, Izzo, Matta or Boeheim will end up in New Orleans this year.

When push comes to shove, this tournament is all luck. You can develop math formulas and study countless hours of tape, but there is no statistical answer that can predict the outcome of the game. I will leave you with this story. In 2006, my dad decided to let my 5-year-old sister pick one of his brackets. I instantly laughed at this tactic, but my dad stayed true to his promise. That included picking #14 Northwestern State over #3 Iowa. To refresh your memory, watch this. Yes, 5 year olds can predict NCAA Tournament games.

Remember, have fun with your brackets. I hope you do not lose any sleep over these picks or pull out your hair if a #16 beats a #1 (which it won’t). Happy Bracketology everyone.

Good Luck. You’ll need it.

-Dan Girolamo

Follow Dan @DannyG3242

Follow the Ice Bath team @IceBathReport

U! S! Eh?

Don’t get me wrong: I’m about as American as Big Macs and John Deere tractors. But as hard as I try, I can’t get myself to fully support USA basketball in these Olympic Games.

I had no trouble endorsing the “Redeem Team” in 2008. After a disgraceful performance in the 2004 Olympics, the goal was to come back, dominate, and prove to the world that the United States of America still has the greatest basketball players in the world. That goal was accomplished, and it was assumed that in these 2012 Olympics that the team would have a similar goal. Although the current team features many of the same players from 2008, the attitude has changed and for the worse. Before they even played one meaningful game, all that the players could talk about was how they were better than the 1992 “Dream Team.” The worst part was that these comments were coming from the so-called leaders of the team, such as Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Experts began to question which squad would win in a game, but I only had one question on my mind: Who the hell cares? Our focus should be earning our recognition as the greatest team in the world, not as the greatest team in American history. The purpose of the Olympics is to prove your excellence to the rest of the world, but most importantly doing so with honor, sportsmanship, and respect for the players representing the other countries. I have no issues with arrogance during the NBA season, especially if it can be backed up. But in the Olympics? It’s sickening, and it poorly represents the United States.

My feelings for this team were on full display during our match against Nigeria. I love a classic ass-kicking and have no problems whatsoever with running up the score, but our behavior during the game was unacceptable to me. Once the game was out of hand, all that our players seemed interested in was landing a spot on the Sportscenter Top 10. Come on guys; realize you are playing against citizens from one of the most underdeveloped countries in the world. If you are going to destroy them, please do so without laughing on the bench and attempts at ridiculous alley-oops. It’s just distasteful.

Then came the game against Lithuania, a team whose best player (Linas Kleiza) has averaged 8.8 points per game in his NBA career. The USA team came out onto the floor and initially looked like a drunken version of the Harlem Globetrotters. Three pointers looked like bricks flying towards the hoop, passes weren’t being completed, and we couldn’t make a free throw even if the hoop was a mile wide. Lithuania carried a lead deep into the fourth quarter, but LeBron James bailed out the American team in the closing minutes. Let me get this straight: I did not want USA to lose. I just think it would have been deserved. It would have been fitting for the Olympics. Lithuania is a team without any star players that actually play like a team. USA is the opposite of that.

The next game for the American team is tomorrow night against Argentina, a squad much more talented that Lithuania. Hopefully the close call in its last game taught this team a lesson. The egos need to be put aside, the stat sheets have to be ignored, and each player must start doing what’s best for the team without intentionally trying to embarrass the competition. Regardless of whether or not an attitude change occurs on this team, I still do believe that they will win the gold medal. No other country even sniffs the amount of talent that is featured on this American team. But Olympic gold medals are unlike NBA Finals rings or Most Valuable Player awards. They are symbolic of all of the values that go into being an Olympian, values that most of the players on USA basketball have lacked thus far. And if they do end up winning the gold medal without obtaining these values, I can guarantee you now that I will not be singing along to the “Star Spangled Banner” while they are standing on the podium.

-PJ Moran