NFL Predictions

Both of the Ice Bath Report contributors have predicted all of the champions and award winners for the 2012 NFL season. This was done before the Week 1 games, so there is no sort of bias. Here it is ladies and gentlemen:                

   PJ                                       Chris

NFC East Winner	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys
NFC North Winner	Green Bay Packers	Green Bay Packers
NFC South Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Atlanta Falcons
NFC West Winner	San Francisco 49ers	San Francisco 49ers
AFC East Winner	New England Patriots	New England Patriots
AFC North Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Baltimore Ravens
AFC South Winner	Houston Texans	Houston Texans
AFC West Winner	Denver Broncos	San Diego Chargers
NFC Wild Cards	1. Philadelphia Eagles 2. New Orleans Saints	1. New York Giants 2.Chicago Bears
AFC Wild Cards	1. San Diego Chargers 2. Cincinnati Bengals	1. Denver Broncos 2.Cincinnati Bengals
NFC Champion	Atlanta Falcons	San Francisco 49ers
AFC Champion	Houston Texans	New England Patriots
Super Bowl Champion	Atlanta Falcons	New England Patriots
MVP	Tom Brady	Tom Brady
Offensive P.O.Y.	Arian Foster	Ray Rice
Defensive P.O.Y.	Von Miller	Ed Reed
Offensive R.O.Y.	Robert Griffin III	Robert Griffin III
Defensive R.O.Y.	Luke Kuechly	Marc Barron
Coach of the Year	Mike Smith	John Fox

Week 1 Roundup

Just some thoughts and what I took away from Week 1 of the NFL season. If you haven't already read my thoughts on the Giants, you can do so here.

• In my opinion, the biggest story line out of Week 1 is the performance of Robert Griffin III. Now, I do think his first touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon was a little on the lucky side and definitely padded his stats--but nonetheless, beating and outplaying Drew Brees in New Orleans who did not lose at home last year is an extraordinary, and beyond impressive feat. This kid looks like a star, and the Redskins look they could be a real son of a bitch to play week in and week out.
• 2nd biggest storyline: Peyton Manning. Manning did not miss a beat Sunday night against a more than stout defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Manning was 19-26 for 253 yards and two scores. He looked like the Peyton Manning of old. Also, the Broncos defense were practically toying with the Steelers offensive line. They sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and hit him another nine, and offensive coordinator Todd Haley was forced to abandon the running game due to the absence of any sort of resemblance to running lanes. Conclusions: Peyton Manning just made this team a serious threat, and the Steelers have some work to do.
• Team that brought the biggest "wow" factor in Week 1: the San Francisco 49ers, .  ESPN has been showing all of these stats on how a team that improved as much as they did last year always comes back with a disappointing season. Bullshit. I can tell you this: that will not happen with this team. Yea, they only won 30-22, but that doesn't tell the whole story.They bludgeoned a popular Super Bowl pick and supposedly the best offense in the league in their house. I have never seen a team hit people harder than these guys do, other than maybe that 2000 Baltimore Ravens championship team. These guys STICK people. And I mean stick them. I just got the feeling that the entire Lambeau Field audience was just like, "Shit, this team is better than us."Aaron Rodgers was clearly rattled, and the lone rusher besides Rodgers was Cedric Benson, who carried the ball 9 times for 18 yards. Rodgers dropped back 47 times. I'm sorry, this team will not win a championship if they are throwing the ball 75% of the time. They can't let these behemoth pass rushers on the loose without fear. If they don't find more of a balance, they may find trouble come playoff time. For the 9ers, the running game was fantastic, Alex Smith managed the game and made no mistakes, and even Randy Moss joined in on the fun and caught a wide-open touchdown pass.Mostly for me, the 49ers showed that they are the absolute NFC favorites.
• Other teams that brought the "wow" factor: Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens. Don't you just get that feeling that it's finally Matt Ryan's time to shine? He has been a very good regular season quarterback but a very bad playoff quarterback. Ryan looks like he is out for blood this year, and this offense looks lethal. A healthy Julio Jones may take over as the best wide receiver in the league this year minus Calvin Johnson. Complement him with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez...you just can't cover them all. They ripped up the Chiefs defense. The Ravens absolutely bullied the Bengals who were a playoff team last year. Joe Flacco is out to prove he can sling it as well as any QB in the league (much like Ryan), and Ray Rice could be the best back in football. The defense was in classic form, with Ray Lewis racking up 14 tackles and Ed Reed intercepting an errant Dalton pass for a touchdown.

Quick Hits

• Alright Jet fans, it was a good start...but god the Bills looked awful. Ryan Fitzpatrick was just flat out brutal. The offense was definitely encouraging, but still the expectations need to be tempered.
• In my opinion, the Dolphins and Browns both made horrible mistakes by going with rookie QB's Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden respectively. Both looked to be overmatched, with Weeden not being able to move the offense forward whatsoever. Both are in bad situation with really bad teams, why throw them into the fire and risk their mental psyche? Now they are faced with a situation where these teams could get off to brutally bad starts with brutally bad quarterback play, do they bench the guys they drafted with the intent to turn their franchise around? Potential disasters.
• Russel Wilson and Andrew Luck didn't exactly dazzle either, but they at least showed the ability to move the offense and give their team a chance to win.
• Watch out for this Cutler-Marshall combo. They were in sync all day long, albeit against a bad Colts defense
• Michael Vick was awful, throwing three interceptions and the Eagles barely escaped with a victory against a Browns team that looks to be horrendous. Dream Team!
• Matthew Stafford pulled the same type of performance, throwing three picks and barely squeezing out a victory in the final seconds against the Rams

Collins Corner: Week 1 Picks

Today is the first NFL Sunday and I could not be more ecstatic. Every week I will use spreads provided by Vegas and make my picks for each game in bold, possibly with a little explanation at the end. We will keep track of my record throughout the year. And I am already starting in the hole because I would have taken the Giants on Wednesday night who were favorites. Aw well. Point spread in the middle is attached to the road team on the left, with the home teams on the right. For those of you novice gamblers, just because I am taking them to cover the spread, doesn't mean I am taking them to win. If you want to take my picks to your respective bookie, by all means do so. If you like what you see...contact me and we can talk some horse racing! Enjoy a great year of football!

Indianapolis +10 at Chicago
Philadelphia -9  at Cleveland
Buffalo +3 at New York Jets
Washington +7.5 at New Orleans
New England -5.5 at Tennessee 
Jacksonville +3.5 at Minnesota
Miami +13 at Houston
St Louis +8 at Detroit
Atlanta -3 at Kansas City
San Francisco +4.5 at Green Bay
Carolina -2.5 at Tampa Bay
Seattle -3 at Arizona

Sunday Night

Pittsburgh +1.5 at Denver

Monday Night

Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore
San Diego +1 at Oakland

If you aren't already, make sure you follow us on twitter @IceBathReport

NFL Preview: AFC West

The AFC West is by far the most wide open division in football. Last year, three teams finished 8-8 with the other finishing 7-9, the landscape should look much the same this year. All four teams should be and will be in the hunt. Virtually a toss up. Let's dive in.

1. San Diego Chargers

Am I confident that this team will win this division? Absolutely not. The difference to me came in strength of schedule, even though they still have to travel to New Orleans and Baltimore. For the last half a decade this team has had immense pressure to perform. They have always had an abundance of talent but have never reached a Super Bowl, despite a couple years of dominating the regular season. But for the first time, the pressure has seemed to have been lifted and I ultimate believe that could be the difference. I'm not saying they will win or get to a Super Bowl, but I do think they can steal this division. Philip Rivers arguably had his worst year as a starter last year, tossing a career high 20 interceptions in a season plagued with erratic performance. I don't think that will be the case this year despite losing his best wide out and favorite deep threat Vincent Jackson. I really don't think the loss will be that detrimental. The Chargers boast a group of talented  receivers--veteran and capable downfield receiver Malcom Floyd returns, and Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal were signed and will be thrown right into the mix. And obviously, Antonio Gates is still there who I think will be the x-factor for this team's success. If he stays healthy (which he hasn't) and one of these receivers steps up, this aerial attack should flourish. If not, a much improved running game should be more than reliable. Ryan Mathews demonstrated why he was a first round pick last year and showed flashes of being an elite back. But once again...he needs to stay healthy. The defense should be solid enough to hold down the fort. Notice I am using a lot of "shoulds" because there is big-time potential here, but a lot needs to go right.

Projected Record: 9-7

2. Denver Broncos

TIM TEBOW WILL LEAD THEM TO THE PROMISED LAND!!! Not so much. Tebow time is over in Denver, and one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play this game has stepped in to try to revitalize his career after a major neck injury. Peyton Manning looked a little shaky at times and showed some obvious rust, but that is to be expected of a guy who hasn't seen live action in over a year. The big question is: how long will that rust last during the actual season? Can he sustain the level of hall-of-fame play that he exhibited for thirteen years in Indianapolis? I wish I knew, but I don't. He won't be playing in a dome anymore, and his stats indoors compared to outdoors are alarmingly different. Remember how poorly he played in the snow against New England in the playoffs? He will certainly be battling some tough condition at Mile High Stadium. Not to mention, he will have to deal with the 2nd hardest schedule in the league that includes traveling to Atlanta who doesn't lose at home, to New England (self explanitory), Cincinnati, and Baltimore. Ouch. He will have the improving Eric Decker and the extremely talented Demaryrius Thomas to play with. He brings Jacob Tamme over from Indy, and will have Willis McGahee to utilize, arguably his most talented back since Edgerrin James. The defense should be much improved, they will be on the field much less without Tebow's 3 and outs, and stars Elvis Dumervill and Von Miller terrorize opposing quarterbacks. This is Manning's team...how far can he take them?

Projected Record: 9-7

3. Oakland Raiders

In my opinion, one of the NFL's most interesting teams this year. Last year after Jason Campbell went down, Al Davis went ahead and mortgaged pretty much their entire draft to acquire Carson Palmer, who just isn't the elite quarterback he once was. At this point, he is average, but better than what the Raiders have had in quite some time. Cough, cough Jamarcus Russel. Denarius Moore and Darius Heyward-Bay pose some high upside threats on the outside, but the key will be Darren McFadden. McFadden was the most prolific playmaker in the entire NFL for the first half of last season...until he got hurt, which has been the story for his whole career. I am starting to repeat myself, but if he can stay healthy, this team could go surprise and take the divisional crown. A defensive unit who ranked 29th in both yards allowed per game and points allowed per game will have to improve mightily, but these guys could be sneaky.

Projected Record: 8-8

4. Kansas City Chiefs

God this division is so wide open. This team could win it too. The more I think about it the more dangerous they are. Romeo Crennel steps in as head coach after taking over as the interim last season, a season haunted by injuries. Their best offensive player and one of the most explosive players in the league Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in week 2 (RIP my 2011 fantasy season), as well as their young stud safety Eric Berry. And I emphasize stud, because that is exactly what he is at the age of 23. Both are back and all reports say that they have looked great in the offseason. This team has a ton of offensive weapons, Dwayne Bowe reliable receiver and the organization has been raving about 2nd year player Jonathan Baldwin, who they say is poised for a breakout season. They also have Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss at tight end to accompany Dexter McCluster as that throw-him-anywhere-on-the-field-because-he-is-ridiculously-fast guy. To compliment Charles, they brought in "I'm big, white, and a runningback" Peyton Hillis. A defense that ranked 12th in the league in points allowed should be much improved with the influence of Berry at the back line along with cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Stanford Routt who are a rock solid tandem. Quarterback Matt Cassel doesn't need to be great, just a game manager who limits mistakes. If he can do that...do we have yet another sneaky bastard in play here? I think so.

Projected Record: 8-8

Pj's Picks

1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

Collins Corner: Thoughts on Last Nights Game

First off I would like to say that this is obviously not the end of the world for the G-Men. It's only week 1, they lost the first game last year as well. So let's exhale here, regroup, and evaluate what happened last night.

-I am very, very concerned about the pass defense. Kevin Ogletree. You know when Kevin Ogletree, Kevin Ogletree!!! has 8 grabs for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns, a major problem exists. Not to mention, the game sealer on 3rd and 10. Even the usually reliable Corey Webster was burnt toast on an Ogletree double move. However, most of the damage was done against Michael Coe, who is just a sorry excuse for a starting cornerback in the National Football League. So then he "hurts" his hamstring and in comes the next Deion Sanders in Justin Tryon. God was that guy awful. He got completely torched for the little time he was in, including the final 3rd down conversion that iced the game. With Terelle Thomas out for the year, the Giants desperately need Prince Amukamura (not that I think he is great either) to recover from his ankle sprain. Otherwise, we may be in some major trouble.

-Linebacker hasn't been a strength of this team for awhile, and I didn't think they did a good job last night either. Demarco Murray was slicing and dicing, and the run he busted for 50 yards after he had been stopped cold was simply inexcusable. Gotta be better. I thought the d-line performed like the crazy bunch of animals that they are...but I also didn't here Osi Umenyiora's name called too much.

-I thought Eli was great. For whatever reason, Victor Cruz didn't bring his hands tonight. Three key drop on perfectly thrown balls. He was definitely getting separation though, just an off night. On the other hand, I did think Nicks' foot was bothersome--he didn't seem to get his normal separation from the defenders. But you have to love how he catches everything that was thrown his way.

-The running game looked much like last year...bad. Bradshaw was running into brick walls all night, and the David Wilson fumble was extremely costly on a drive that was in Cowboys territory and steadily progressing. He was pretty much absent for the rest of the game and rightly so. I'm sorry, unless you get absolutely shellacked, I find fumbles to be inexcusable. He brings a ton of explosiveness to the table, but if he brings the fumble problem that plagued his collegiate career...he will have to spend most of his time on the sidelines.

That's all I got for now fellas. I'm not panicking whatsoever, but just observing what I witnessed. I am fully confident the Giants will rebound and kick the ever loving shit out of Tampa Bay. Go Big Blue.

-Chris Collins

NFL Preview: NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers

This is by far the easiest division winner to predict. Not only is this team extremely good, they also play in the worst division in the NFC. Alex Smith won’t throw for a lot of yards or touchdowns, but he is a good game manager and doesn’t make many mistakes. Frank Gore is breaking down, but Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, and LaMichael James will give him some help at running back. The receiving corps is full of big names, like Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, and Mario Manningham, but they are nothing more than average and won’t put up big numbers with Smith throwing them the ball. The best part of the offense is the line, which includes the dominant left side of Joe Staley and Mike Iupati. The real story of this 49ers team is the defense though. Literally every starter is a Pro Bowl caliber player. Patrick Willis is a future Hall of Famer, Justin Smith probably should have won Defensive Player of the Year last season, and Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman are stars in the making. The 49ers were two fumbled punt returns away from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl last year. Even with an average offense, the defense is good enough to take the 49ers back to the playoffs.

Projected Record: 12-4

2. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have improved every year under Pete Carroll, and this year should be no different. They shocked everyone by naming rookie Russell Wilson the starting quarterback after giving Matt Flynn a big contract. Wilson is a freak athlete and looked like a veteran in the preseason, but there will definitely be some growing pains and rookie struggles. It helps though that Wilson has Marshawn Lynch to hand the ball off to. Lynch looked like his old self last season and should stay in “Beast Mode” this year too. The receivers aren’t very good, but it wouldn’t be surprising if either Golden Tate or Doug Baldwin broke out this season. Like the 49ers, the real strength of this team is the defense. The front 7 is pretty good and will put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. However, it’s the secondary that makes this defense great. The unit of Brandon Browner, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Richard Sherman is young, fast, and hard-hitting. They might be the best secondary in the NFL and will be nightmares for quarterbacks this season. I do think Seattle will be good, but they are another team that will get screwed because they play in the NFC.

Projected Record: 9-7

3. St. Louis Rams

The Rams were absolutely pitiful last season, but that shouldn’t be the case this year. I’m not saying they’re going to be good, but new head coach Jeff Fisher won’t let them suck as much as they did. After an awesome rookie season, Sam Bradford had a very disappointing year, and now has to prove this season that he was worthy of being drafted first overall. Steven Jackson has been more the solid at running back for the Rams, but the end is near for him so he might start to slow down this season. The receivers are mediocre, as is the offensive line. Like the previous two teams in this division, their defense is better than their offense. Chris Long has silently turned into a stud, and Robert Quinn is also good on the opposite end of the line. James Laurinaitis is a great middle linebacker and makes that unit respectable. Cortland Finnegan was brought in to solidify the secondary, and if rookie Janoris Jenkins plays up to his full potential then this group could be very good. The Rams have no shot of making the playoffs this season, but they’ll improve and will at least be watchable.

Projected Record: 6-10

4. Arizona Cardinals

Yikes. It’s pretty hard to believe that only a few years ago this team played in the Super Bowl. If you look up and down their roster, you’ll realize that this is a REALLY bad team. It all starts with the quarterback, and that would be John Skelton, who should not be starting for any NFL team. They have one of the best players in the NFL in Larry Fitzgerald, but this season might even be a down year for him if he doesn’t have a decent quarterback. On top of this, the offensive line is an absolute joke. The defense is better than the offense, but it’s still not great. The Cardinals have two great ends in Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell. Adrian Wilson is still one of the best safeties in the game, and Patrick Peterson is a game changer at both the cornerback and punt returner positions. The others starters aside from them are either subpar or average. Add all of this up, and this is going to be a disastrous season for the Cardinals.

Projected Record: 4-12

-PJ Moran

NFL Preview: AFC South

1. Houston Texans

Remember that period of 4 years where people kept saying that this was the year the Texans would final make the jump from an 8-8 team to a playoff team? Well, last year was the finally the year—they won 10 games and the weak AFC South outright, not to mention a playoff win. What made the run even more remarkable—they started the season without star runningback Arian Foster, ended the season without starting quarterback Matt Schaub, lost all-world wide receiver Andre Johnson for a large chunk in the middle, and were without defensive end Mario Williams for almost the entire year. Now Williams got the big bucks and fled to Buffalo, but if the rest of these guys can stay in one piece and play on the field at the same time…watch out, this offense could be lethal. When he plays, Foster has been the best back in the league for the past two seasons, and we all know how good Andre Johnson can be. Schaub just needs to be an adequate QB and the offense will be very good if not great. On defense, this improved unit did lose Mario Williams as well as linebacker Demeco Ryans, but star-in-the-making JJ Watt along with underrated Connor Barwin and Antonio Smith should give this team an elite pass rush. The addition of Jonathan Joseph at corner last year finally provided some resistance to the aerial attack and Kareem Jackson opposite of him should only get better. O, and Brian Cushing is a straight up animal. For the Texans, this year is all about staying healthy. If they can do that…all systems go baby. They play in a weak division where they should beat both the Colts and Jags twice, can they take the next step?

Projected Record: 11-5

      2.    Tennessee Titans

All things considered, the Titans flew very much under the radar last season finishing 9-7 and remaining in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. They did so with Chris Johnson performing at a very pedestrian level, losing #1 receiver Kenny Britt to a torn ACL in Week 2 of the season, and an aging QB in Matt Hasselback who surprisingly played his best football in a long time. CJ2K (#jklol the jokes on you! Only rushed for 1047 yards!) has rededicated himself this offseason and all reports say that he is in fantastic shape and looking like the guy we saw in 2009 who rushed for over 2,000 yards. When healthy, Kenny Britt has looked like a future star but will have to overcome the ACL injury and also some off-the-field issues, which landed him with a suspension for week one. The Titans will also go to their QB of the future in Jake Locker who looked fantastic in relief of Hasselback last season but also had some hiccups this pre-season, which is to be expected of a young signal caller. They also drafted speedster Kendall Wright to give Locker another weapon to utilize, and the two seemed to develop some nice camaraderie in the pre-season The defensive unit is stout, but will need to improve if they want to make the post-season, they ranked 11^th in yards per game and 8^th in points allowed. This season will likely rely on the arm of Locker and how well he handles the starting role, if he can show he will be a part of this next wave of great young QB’s, this team may just surprise people this year.

Projected Record: 9-7

      3.    Indianapolis Colts

Man, last year was brutal. A 2-14 finish confirmed just how valuable Peyton Manning was to that team and organization. I mean don’t get me wrong, I am as big as a Curtis Painter fan as the next guy, but wow, even I didn’t think they were going to be THAT bad. The Colts will be in full fledged rebuilding mode this year—that guy named Manning now plays for Denver, and that guy named Luck will now look to start a new era of greatness at the QB position, a position Manning held down at the absolute highest level for 13 years. No big deal, small shoes to fill. All reports said Luck was as good as advertised and camp, and he looked like a five-year veteran this pre-season. I remember watching him play and just saying damn, this kid is an absolute stud. However, the Colts didn’t just lose Manning. Long staples of the franchise like Joseph Addai, Jeff Saturday, Pierre Garcon, Gary Brackett, and Dallas Clark are all history. It’s an entirely new generation in Indy. Luckily (<<see what I did there!!), they did hang onto Reggie Wayne, who should be ready for a big bounce-back season with a capable QB throwing him the ball. They also drafted Luck’s favorite target throughout his collegiate career in Coby Fleener, with the hopes that they have already found the Manning-Clark clone of a combo. Luck will be handing off to Donald Brown, who somehow managed a more than respectable 4.8 yards a carry mark last season. He has never handled an every-down-back workload, but he has showed some flashes of explosiveness in the pre-season. They also added tackle Eric Winston to give Luck some protection. Look, this team will have some MAJOR growing pains. The defense will have those games where you will have to cover your eyes, but all in all, this year will be a glimpse of the future, a glimpse of the most highly touted quarterback to come out of college since his predecessor. I see this season as maybe a 5 to 6 win season, but I also think they have the ability to pull off one of those shockers where they pull a game out of their rear end—and if that is the climax of the season, I think the Colts organization will be perfectly happy with that.

Projected Record: 5-11

      4.     Jacksonville Jaguars

Yikes. Meet the NFL’s most putrid offense. Their only weapon and without-a-doubt best player just completed a lengthy holdout and will be limited to 3^rd down duties to start the year, their quarterback was a complete mess in his rookie season, and their #1 receiver is a rookie who blew a .24 while in control of a motor vehicle this offseason #BadDecisionBin. Seriously though, the glass isn’t just half empty for this team, it is pretty much Sahara dry. Many of his own coaches and scouts around the league have already proclaimed Blaine Gabbart to be a complete dud. When that man is your starting quarterback…that’s never a good sign. MJD’s holdout just secured a miserable season for the Jags, and that holdout will probably subsequently result in a down year for the NFL’s leading rusher last season. Just ask Chris Johnson about that one! Remember in that movie Perfect Storm where they sailed through the eye of the mother load of all storms, and then shit hit the fan and sunk their boat? That’s kind of what I’m thinking for this team.

Projected Record: 2-14

Pj’s Picks

      1.     Houston Texans

      2.     Tennessee Titans

      3.     Indianapolis Colts

      4.     Jacksonville Jaguars