Fantasy Football: RB Preview

Hope you all enjoyed the quarterback preview. Next up is probably the most interesting position in fantasy football: running back. In today’s NFL where passing records are being broken left and right, it is tough to find a running back who gets a good number of carries and scoring opportunities. So this year it’s especially important that you can draft two guys who will have those chances, and there are going to be more of them than you might think. Obviously there is the elite group of runners, the guys who will fly off the board in the first round. I do strongly suggest taking a running back in the first round, considering it’s easily the slimmest position in fantasy football. But even if you land a bad pick or fall in love with a player at a different position, you can be OK. Read closely as I rank the running backs for this year’s fantasy football season, from the studs that will go in the first round to the late-round steals that can help you win your championship. Take my advice and I assure you that you can end up with the most complete team in your league.

Rankings:

1. Ray Rice

2. Arian Foster

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Ryan Mathews

5. Maurice Jones-Drew

6. Matt Forte

7. Darren McFadden

8. Chris Johnson

9. Adrian Peterson

10. Marshawn Lynch

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Fred Jackson

13. Jamaal Charles

14. Darren Sproles

15. Reggie Bush

16. Michael Turner

17. Steven Jackson

18. Trent Richardson

19. Willis McGahee

20. Roy Helu

21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

22. Ahmad Bradshaw

23. Isaac Redman

24. Frank Gore

25. Doug Martin

26. Ben Tate

27. Beanie Wells

28. Donald Brown

29. Stevan Ridley

30. Toby Gerhart

31. James Starks

32. Jonathan Stewart

33. Michael Bush

34. Peyton Hillis

35. C.J. Spiller

36. David Wilson

37. Felix Jones

38. DeAngelo Williams

39. Jahvid Best

40. Jonathan Dwyer

41. Mark Ingram

42. Evan Royster

43. Mike Goodson

44. Daniel Thomas

45. LeGarrette Blount

46. Bernard Scott

47. Ryan Williams

48. Kevin Smith

49. Dion Lewis

50. Shane Vereen

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Ray Rice – I know, I know. Ray Rice is by no means a sleeper. I am only including him in this column to make you sure that you know to take him with the first overall pick if you land that spot in your draft. The general argument for #1 overall is Rice vs. Arian Foster. Here are some reasons for Rice: He was the best running back in fantasy football last season. Cam Cameron, the offensive coordinator of the Ravens, will probably be fired if he does not run more with Rice and throw less with Joe Flacco. Ricky Williams, Rice’s backup last season, is out of the NFL and left the Ravens with no legitimate #2 running back. Not to mention, Rice is among the best there is at the running back position in receiving and pass blocking. While I do like Foster a lot, he did lose the entire right side of his offensive line and plays in front of the best backup running back in the NFL (Ben Tate). That enough?

Ryan Mathews – Here are some things you probably didn’t know about Ryan Mathews: He led the NFL with 4.9 yards per carry last season. He missed a few games and still caught 50 passes. Mike Tolbert stole 10 touchdowns from him. He still finished as the #9 overall running back. Well, the Chargers are looking to run the ball more this season, Mathews’ legs are at 100%, and Tolbert is out of San Diego. Mathews is entering his third-year, a very common year for running backs to break out. Expect that from Mathews this season.

Darren McFadden – If Run DMC manages to stay healthy for 16 games this season, watch out. Here are McFadden’s point totals from the six games he played in last season: 15, 24, 29, 11, 6, 15. Not to mention, that was with Jason Campbell as his starting quarterback and with Michael Bush taking some carries every game. Now Carson Palmer is behind center for the Raiders, and Bush is playing for Chicago. I know McFadden has a dreadful history of injuries, but none of them have been serious enough to the point where he can’t come back 100% from them. I think there is a fairly good chance that McFadden will play the whole season, and if he does, he is honestly good enough to be the #1 running back in fantasy football.

Darren Sproles – From one Darren to another. Sproles is easily the most interesting relevant running back in fantasy football. Last season, he rushed for two touchdowns and never topped 100 yards in a single game. However, this tiny talent did catch 86 passes out of the backfield, and only scored single-digit fantasy points in 5 games last season. He will never get a ton of carries, but he will catch a ton of balls while rushing for a decent amount of yards and probably scoring a few return touchdowns. In a year of uncertainty at the running back position, you can be certain that Sproles will come through with a good year.

Isaac Redman – If there is any running back that is in the perfect situation to maximize his talents, it’s Redman. Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL in Week 17 last season, so he is not expected to return any time soon this upcoming season. Even if he does, he sucks so don’t worry about him. I also don’t see the Steelers flourishing under Todd Haley as an offensive coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger (See: QB Preview) isn’t the gunslinger than Kurt Warner was, and they have no receivers that even compare to Larry Fitzgerald. Haley will have to change his ways from his Arizona days, and that means more carries for Redman. Look at Redman as a good #2 running back. If it turns out that he isn’t skilled enough to take advantage of this opportunity, substitute his backup Jonathan Dwyer into this column.

Donald Brown – The Colts have invested their entire future into Andrew Luck. The Colts also know that they aren’t going to be very good this year. For Luck, this season will be about just getting snaps and learning the ways of NFL defenses; the wins and big numbers will come in future seasons. That means that Luck will be handing the ball off a lot this season, and Brown is clearly the best running back on the Colts depth chart. Brown is still very young and showed flashes of brilliance last season, so I expect the Colts to try to develop chemistry between Luck and Brown like they did in the past with Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James. I see Brown as a decent #2 running back or a high-end flex play this fantasy football season.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Maurice Jones-Drew – I love MJD, so this is tough for me to admit. Last season he was fantastic, leading the NFL in rushing while also helping me win my fantasy league. I just can’t see him doing it again this year. I know he has been remarkably consistent the past few years, playing through injuries week after week and still putting up great numbers. But he is coming off of a whopping 343 carries last season, and players NEVER put up numbers even close the following season after carrying the ball that much. Jones-Drew also plays on a team with the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in Blaine Gabbert, so teams will know that the run is coming. I’m rooting for MJD this year, because he is as tough as they come and deserves another great year. But I wouldn’t touch him in the first round of fantasy drafts.

Steven Jackson – I feel the same way about Jackson as I do about Jones-Drew. I love them both, but they are both getting older, banged up, and play on terrible teams. Jackson does have a much more promising quarterback in Sam Bradford, so he may be able to lighten Jackson’s workload. Even if he does though, he would be doing so a few years too late. Jackson has been the Rams’ entire offense for years now, and a guy can only go on for so long with that kind of burden. For Jackson, I think last year was his last year as a good fantasy running back. He’s just too old now, and the Rams still haven’t gotten him nearly enough help. Absolute best-case scenario, I see Jackson finishing the year as an average #2 running back. 

Frank Gore – Yes, Frank Gore did play in all 16 games last season. And yes, Jim Harbaugh is going to run the ball as much as possible due to Alex Smith’s inadequacy. I just don’t think as many of the carries will be going to Gore as one might think. As last season progressed, Gore averaged less and less carries per game. He also did not have one game of 100 yards rushing from Week 10 to Week 17. The 49ers also signed Brandon Jacobs, drafted LaMichael James, and have the promising Kendall Hunter on their depth chart. Gore has had a great NFL career, but I see this year as the beginning of a rapid decline in production. Like Jackson, I think the best possible outcome for Gore this season would be as a decent #2 running back.

Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams – Oh, how it would suck to be a running back for the Carolina Panthers. Stewart and Williams are some of the most talented running backs in the NFL, but they are both in just in a god-awful situation. Not only will Cam Newton throw the ball a lot this season, but he will also steal nearly every goal-line touchdown from these running backs. And just to make sure that Stewart and Williams don’t score any short-distance touchdowns, the Panthers brought in Mike Tolbert just in case. The touchdowns won’t be there, the total yards won’t be there, and a starting spot on your fantasy roster shouldn’t be there.

Jahvid Best – I’ll keep it short and sweet. Three words: history of concussions. Stay as far away as possible.

LeGarrette Blount – After a very promising rookie year in which he cracked the 1,000-yard mark, Blount put up one of the most disappointing fantasy years by a running back in recent memory last season. When a 250-pound man is afraid to run into a hole, he probably isn’t going to do very well in the NFL. The motivation just isn’t there for Blount. He would probably rather spend his Sunday smoking his last name then playing football. Not to mention, he would also find a way to fumble the football even if you taped it to his hands. Tampa Bay used its first round pick on Doug Martin (just missed the cut in the Good Vibes column), who should excel and quickly become the team’s starting running back. Absolutely do not draft Blount as a starter for your fantasy team, and I would even suggest that you don’t draft him at all.

That’s my input on running backs for this season. Wide receiver preview debuts tomorrow.

-PJ Moran

Fantasy Football: Introduction and QB Preview

It’s about that time of year ladies and gentlemen! Okay, probably just gentlemen. But anyway, fantasy football season is right around the corner, and we couldn’t be more excited about it. For us, fantasy football draft night is right up there with Christmas and our own birthdays. It’s a night of great expectations, high hopes, and intense decision-making. However, just one bad pick can crush all of your championship aspirations, so you best make sure that you are prepared for your draft.

You might be wondering, why should I listen to some guy on the Internet with my fantasy football draft? Well, I have never missed the playoffs in a fantasy football season. I’ve led my league in scoring in three of the past four years. Last season, I finished the regular season 12-1 and swept the competition in the postseason. That’s right: I went 15-1. Suck on that Matthew Berry. So yeah, I’d listen to me.

Every day for the next six days I will release a preview of each major fantasy position. These previews will feature rankings along with my predictions for sleepers and busts.

I’ll start with the quarterbacks, the most important position in real football and fantasy football. Your quarterback truly dictates the success of your team, so make sure that you like whom you have at the top of your roster. Is it possible to win with a below-average quarterback? Yes, but I can assure you it’s a helluva lot harder. So kick back, read closely, and take my advice on which quarterbacks will give you the best chance of fantasy glory.

Rankings:

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Michael Vick

5. Peyton Manning

6. Cam Newton

7. Matthew Stafford

8. Eli Manning

9. Philip Rivers

10. Tony Romo

11. Matt Ryan

12. Jay Cutler

13. Ben Roethlisberger

14. Matt Schaub

15. Joe Flacco

16. Andy Dalton

17. Carson Palmer

18. Robert Griffin III

19. Josh Freeman

20. Ryan Fitzpatrick

21. Andrew Luck

22. Alex Smith

23. Matt Flynn

24. Kevin Kolb

25. Sam Bradford

26. Matt Cassel

27. Tim Tebow

28. Mark Sanchez

29. Christian Ponder

30. Jake Locker

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Drew Brees – I know what you’re probably thinking: No shit, Sherlock. The guy threw for almost 5,500 yards last season. But Brees has his doubters this season. Head coach and play-caller Sean Payton is suspended for the entire season because Roger Goodell is channeling his inner Joseph Stalin. Robert Meachem left for San Diego and Carl Nicks is suiting up for Tampa Bay. Still, this guy is still the best on-field leader in the league and still has the game’s most accurate arm. He still has Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and more. I’m not saying he’s going to break his own passing record, but I expect similar numbers this season. Don’t be afraid to invest a late first-round pick on the guy.

Michael Vick – As a die-hard Giants fan, I hate to admit it but I think Michael Vick is going to have a monster year. After a huge 2010 showing Vick disappointed last season, but the guy was still pretty damn good. He only played in 13 games, and he still threw for more yards in a single season than he ever had in his career. On top of this, he only ran for one touchdown last year, so there will be plenty more of those this season. I don’t expect the Eagles to be the “Dream Team”, but I do think they will be scary good this year, mainly because of Vick’s play.

Peyton Manning – It honestly blows my mind seeing where Peyton Manning ranks in most other experts’ rankings. I felt like I was short-changing him at #5. I know he didn’t play at all last year and that he’s with a new team, BUT IT’S PEYTON MANNING. This guy is a top-3 all time quarterback, and it’s not like he’s long removed from his success. Of the last three seasons he has played, he won two MVP awards. Does he have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in Denver? No, but he does have a better running game and offensive line than he did in his last years in Indianapolis. Peyton is an injury-risk, but I don’t think he’s as risky as everyone else does. I trust Peyton, and I would draft him as my fantasy starter with full confidence.

Carson Palmer – Palmer’s numbers weren’t too good last year, so I’m sure you’re probably wondering why I like him for this season. Well, he was rushed in as a Raider, with limited time to work with his new teammates and to learn the playbook. His fellow Raiders, especially Darren McFadden, were also never at full strength when he was behind center. So while it would be idiotic to predict that Carson Palmer will be a star fantasy player this season, I do think there’s a good chance he can be a low-end starter. A top-10 season for quarterbacks wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.

Tim Tebow – Don’t worry, I’m not at all a part of the Tebowmania. But I do think that Timmy T will perform better this upcoming season than most people expect. I don’t think it will take too long for Mark Sanchez to blow it and give Tebow the chance to start. But even if that doesn’t happen, I think that Rex Ryan is crazy enough to use a ton of offenses that give Tebow the chance to run. And if some of these offenses are within the red zone, you can expect a high number of running touchdowns. Please do not draft Tebow as your Week One fantasy starter. But please don’t let Tebow sit in free agency and eventually burn you at the end of the season.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Matthew Stafford – Let me get this straight: I don’t think Stafford is going to have a bad year because he’s in this column. I just don’t think that he’s going to approach everyone’s expectations. I don’t even like his chances to stay healthy another full season. I know he didn’t miss a start last year, but I feel like his right shoulder is being held together by Elmer’s Glue at this point in his career. On top of that, I don’t like quarterbacks who are completely reliant on one receiver, as Stafford is on Calvin Johnson. Not to mention, the Lions have absolutely no running game so defenses are going to adjust this time around. I see Stafford as a low-end starter and don’t think you should consider him at his average draft position.

Eli Manning – Eli is my favorite player in the NFL, so I don’t really have anything bad to say about him. Just don’t think of him as the two-time Super Bowl MVP when you are looking for a fantasy quarterback. You know what you’re getting when you draft Eli: Consistently solid numbers and also no monster performances. While he’s undoubtedly an elite quarterback in this league, he is better at winning games than putting up big numbers. In fantasy, that doesn’t do you much good.

Ben Roethlisberger – I don’t think I can be clearer when I say, DO NOT LET BIG BEN BE YOUR STARTING QUARTERBACK. It’s not that I hate Roethlisberger…oh wait, yes I do. He’s an average quarterback who only has two rings because he has played on teams that had legendary defenses. He has put up good numbers in the past, but never great numbers. It’s possible that his offensive line has gotten even worse this year, Mike Wallace’s contract situation is a mess, and Isaac Redman is going to be the starting running back. If that’s not enough reasons to stay away from Big Ben, then have fun coming in last place this year.

Robert Griffin III – I do fully believe that RG3 will someday be a phenomenal quarterback in this league. However, it won’t happen in his rookie year. I know many people are going to draft him thinking that he will put up Cam Newton-like numbers. But Griffin and Newton don’t have nearly as much in common as people think. Newton was on an awful team with a first-year head coach, so he was able to take a ton of chances and really experiment on the field. RG3, on the other hand, is playing on a team that’s more talented than most people think that is coached by Mike Shanahan. Shanahan will run the ball as much as possible, so I’d expect Griffin to throw maybe 20-25 balls a game. Expect big numbers from RG3 in the future, just not this year.

Alex Smith – The 49ers were a new and exciting team last year, so people really didn’t pay attention to how mediocre Alex Smith is. In a season where quarterbacks put up video game-like numbers, Alex Smith never threw for 300 yards in a regular season game. In the NFC Championship Game, he did not complete one pass to a wide receiver. I know they brought in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, but it won’t take long to realize that Moss is so far past his prime and that Manningham actually sucks. I’m sure Alex Smith is a nice guy, but you don’t get fantasy points for making friends. While you’re drafting Smith to be your starter, I’ll be admitting you to your nearest insane asylum.

That’s all for quarterbacks. Stay tuned for running backs tomorrow.

-PJ Moran