Fantasy Football: Introduction and QB Preview

It’s about that time of year ladies and gentlemen! Okay, probably just gentlemen. But anyway, fantasy football season is right around the corner, and we couldn’t be more excited about it. For us, fantasy football draft night is right up there with Christmas and our own birthdays. It’s a night of great expectations, high hopes, and intense decision-making. However, just one bad pick can crush all of your championship aspirations, so you best make sure that you are prepared for your draft.

You might be wondering, why should I listen to some guy on the Internet with my fantasy football draft? Well, I have never missed the playoffs in a fantasy football season. I’ve led my league in scoring in three of the past four years. Last season, I finished the regular season 12-1 and swept the competition in the postseason. That’s right: I went 15-1. Suck on that Matthew Berry. So yeah, I’d listen to me.

Every day for the next six days I will release a preview of each major fantasy position. These previews will feature rankings along with my predictions for sleepers and busts.

I’ll start with the quarterbacks, the most important position in real football and fantasy football. Your quarterback truly dictates the success of your team, so make sure that you like whom you have at the top of your roster. Is it possible to win with a below-average quarterback? Yes, but I can assure you it’s a helluva lot harder. So kick back, read closely, and take my advice on which quarterbacks will give you the best chance of fantasy glory.

Rankings:

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Michael Vick

5. Peyton Manning

6. Cam Newton

7. Matthew Stafford

8. Eli Manning

9. Philip Rivers

10. Tony Romo

11. Matt Ryan

12. Jay Cutler

13. Ben Roethlisberger

14. Matt Schaub

15. Joe Flacco

16. Andy Dalton

17. Carson Palmer

18. Robert Griffin III

19. Josh Freeman

20. Ryan Fitzpatrick

21. Andrew Luck

22. Alex Smith

23. Matt Flynn

24. Kevin Kolb

25. Sam Bradford

26. Matt Cassel

27. Tim Tebow

28. Mark Sanchez

29. Christian Ponder

30. Jake Locker

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Drew Brees – I know what you’re probably thinking: No shit, Sherlock. The guy threw for almost 5,500 yards last season. But Brees has his doubters this season. Head coach and play-caller Sean Payton is suspended for the entire season because Roger Goodell is channeling his inner Joseph Stalin. Robert Meachem left for San Diego and Carl Nicks is suiting up for Tampa Bay. Still, this guy is still the best on-field leader in the league and still has the game’s most accurate arm. He still has Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and more. I’m not saying he’s going to break his own passing record, but I expect similar numbers this season. Don’t be afraid to invest a late first-round pick on the guy.

Michael Vick – As a die-hard Giants fan, I hate to admit it but I think Michael Vick is going to have a monster year. After a huge 2010 showing Vick disappointed last season, but the guy was still pretty damn good. He only played in 13 games, and he still threw for more yards in a single season than he ever had in his career. On top of this, he only ran for one touchdown last year, so there will be plenty more of those this season. I don’t expect the Eagles to be the “Dream Team”, but I do think they will be scary good this year, mainly because of Vick’s play.

Peyton Manning – It honestly blows my mind seeing where Peyton Manning ranks in most other experts’ rankings. I felt like I was short-changing him at #5. I know he didn’t play at all last year and that he’s with a new team, BUT IT’S PEYTON MANNING. This guy is a top-3 all time quarterback, and it’s not like he’s long removed from his success. Of the last three seasons he has played, he won two MVP awards. Does he have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in Denver? No, but he does have a better running game and offensive line than he did in his last years in Indianapolis. Peyton is an injury-risk, but I don’t think he’s as risky as everyone else does. I trust Peyton, and I would draft him as my fantasy starter with full confidence.

Carson Palmer – Palmer’s numbers weren’t too good last year, so I’m sure you’re probably wondering why I like him for this season. Well, he was rushed in as a Raider, with limited time to work with his new teammates and to learn the playbook. His fellow Raiders, especially Darren McFadden, were also never at full strength when he was behind center. So while it would be idiotic to predict that Carson Palmer will be a star fantasy player this season, I do think there’s a good chance he can be a low-end starter. A top-10 season for quarterbacks wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.

Tim Tebow – Don’t worry, I’m not at all a part of the Tebowmania. But I do think that Timmy T will perform better this upcoming season than most people expect. I don’t think it will take too long for Mark Sanchez to blow it and give Tebow the chance to start. But even if that doesn’t happen, I think that Rex Ryan is crazy enough to use a ton of offenses that give Tebow the chance to run. And if some of these offenses are within the red zone, you can expect a high number of running touchdowns. Please do not draft Tebow as your Week One fantasy starter. But please don’t let Tebow sit in free agency and eventually burn you at the end of the season.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Matthew Stafford – Let me get this straight: I don’t think Stafford is going to have a bad year because he’s in this column. I just don’t think that he’s going to approach everyone’s expectations. I don’t even like his chances to stay healthy another full season. I know he didn’t miss a start last year, but I feel like his right shoulder is being held together by Elmer’s Glue at this point in his career. On top of that, I don’t like quarterbacks who are completely reliant on one receiver, as Stafford is on Calvin Johnson. Not to mention, the Lions have absolutely no running game so defenses are going to adjust this time around. I see Stafford as a low-end starter and don’t think you should consider him at his average draft position.

Eli Manning – Eli is my favorite player in the NFL, so I don’t really have anything bad to say about him. Just don’t think of him as the two-time Super Bowl MVP when you are looking for a fantasy quarterback. You know what you’re getting when you draft Eli: Consistently solid numbers and also no monster performances. While he’s undoubtedly an elite quarterback in this league, he is better at winning games than putting up big numbers. In fantasy, that doesn’t do you much good.

Ben Roethlisberger – I don’t think I can be clearer when I say, DO NOT LET BIG BEN BE YOUR STARTING QUARTERBACK. It’s not that I hate Roethlisberger…oh wait, yes I do. He’s an average quarterback who only has two rings because he has played on teams that had legendary defenses. He has put up good numbers in the past, but never great numbers. It’s possible that his offensive line has gotten even worse this year, Mike Wallace’s contract situation is a mess, and Isaac Redman is going to be the starting running back. If that’s not enough reasons to stay away from Big Ben, then have fun coming in last place this year.

Robert Griffin III – I do fully believe that RG3 will someday be a phenomenal quarterback in this league. However, it won’t happen in his rookie year. I know many people are going to draft him thinking that he will put up Cam Newton-like numbers. But Griffin and Newton don’t have nearly as much in common as people think. Newton was on an awful team with a first-year head coach, so he was able to take a ton of chances and really experiment on the field. RG3, on the other hand, is playing on a team that’s more talented than most people think that is coached by Mike Shanahan. Shanahan will run the ball as much as possible, so I’d expect Griffin to throw maybe 20-25 balls a game. Expect big numbers from RG3 in the future, just not this year.

Alex Smith – The 49ers were a new and exciting team last year, so people really didn’t pay attention to how mediocre Alex Smith is. In a season where quarterbacks put up video game-like numbers, Alex Smith never threw for 300 yards in a regular season game. In the NFC Championship Game, he did not complete one pass to a wide receiver. I know they brought in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, but it won’t take long to realize that Moss is so far past his prime and that Manningham actually sucks. I’m sure Alex Smith is a nice guy, but you don’t get fantasy points for making friends. While you’re drafting Smith to be your starter, I’ll be admitting you to your nearest insane asylum.

That’s all for quarterbacks. Stay tuned for running backs tomorrow.

-PJ Moran