Collins Corner: Week 2 Picks

Welp, it's a good thing my bookie called out sick last week. I took a beating. I did have Green Bay on Thursday night who covered, so at least I can chalk up one in the win column to start this week.

Week 1 Record: 5-11

Overall Record: 5-11

Week 2 Picks

Cleveland +6.5 at Cincinnati
Oakland -2.5 at Miami
Kansas City +3 at Buffalo
Minnesota -1.5 at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay +7 at New York Giants
New Orleans -2.5 at Carolina
Arizona +14 at New England
Houston -7.5 at Jacksonville
Baltimore +2.5 at Philadelphia
Dallas -3 at Seattle
Washington -3 at St. Louis
Tennessee +6.5 at San Diego

Sunday Night

Detroit +7 at San Francisco

Monday Night

Denver +3 at Atlanta (Best Bet)

Take my 5-11 record for what it's worth...

Fantasy Football: D/ST Preview

You’ve got to love when a bunch of real positions are condensed into one giant position in fantasy football. Sometimes defenses will go off for huge weeks, but most of the time they score single-digit point totals; or even worse, negative point totals. Defenses and special teams are difficult to predict, because you aren’t just looking at one player. Still, there are the units who are almost definitely going to come through this season, while some will surprise and others will disappoint. When it comes to the D/ST fantasy position, do not reach. Fill out all of your other positions (besides kicker) and even draft some depth at the skill positions. You can wait to take a good unit, and after you read my rankings you’ll know exactly whom those good units are.

Rankings:

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. Houston Texans

3. Seattle Seahawks

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Philadelphia Eagles

6. Baltimore Ravens

7.  Chicago Bears

8.  Buffalo Bills

9. Dallas Cowboys

10. New York Jets

11. Kansas City Chiefs

12. Green Bay Packers

13. Atlanta Falcons

14. St. Louis Rams

15. New York Giants

16. Detroit Lions

17. Arizona Cardinals

18. New England Patriots

19. Miami Dolphins

20. Cincinnati Bengals

That’s all she wrote for Fantasy Football Week! I know, I didn’t mention anything about kickers. I will say this: DO NOT DRAFT A KICKER UNTIL THE LAST ROUND. They are unpredictable and not worth anything more than a last round pick. If you don’t like being told what to do and aren’t going to listen to me, then I guess take Stephen Gostkowski, David Akers, or Sebastian Janikowski.

I hope you guys enjoyed reading my previews as much as I did writing them. Good luck in your draft, although you won’t need luck if you take my advice. See you shortly.

-PJ Moran

Fantasy Football: TE Preview

For years the tight end position was always somewhat of an afterthought in fantasy football leagues. There were a few players who put up nice stats, but it didn’t matter too much if you missed out on them. Not so much anymore. After Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham broke practically every single-season tight end record last year, other teams have began to find ways to make their tight end an integral part of their offense. Tight ends probably won’t be the guys who win you your fantasy league, but they can be the ones who complete your team and separate you from everyone else.

Rankings:

1. Jimmy Graham

2. Rob Gronkowski

3. Aaron Hernandez

4. Jermichael Finley

5. Jason Witten

6. Vernon Davis

7. Antonio Gates

8. Fred Davis

9. Jacob Tamme

10. Tony Gonzalez

11. Jared Cook

12. Brandon Pettigrew

13. Jermaine Gresham

14. Brent Celek

15. Martellus Bennett

16. Dustin Keller

17. Greg Olsen

18. Kyle Rudolph

19. Ed Dickson

20. Coby Fleener

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Jimmy Graham – Again, by no means is Graham a sleeper. I just think that he will finish the season as the top tight end over the common pick of Rob Gronkowski. Graham was targeted more than any other tight end in the league last season, and he also plays on a team with the most accurate quarterback in the NFL so most of those targets are completions. Deep threat Robert Meachem is also out of New Orleans, and Graham is the rare tight end that can quickly run the field. I do think Gronk will have another great year, but he plays on a team with another elite tight end in Aaron Hernandez. The Pats also added Brandon Lloyd, so I don’t see Gronkowski scoring 18 touchdowns again. I’ll take Graham in the receptions and yards department over Gronkowski, and I’d take him in front of Gronk in the draft as well.

Fred Davis – Davis was on pace for a breakout year last season, destined for a 1,000+ yard season through his first 12 games. But then his immaturity set in and he was suspended the last four games of the season for marijuana use. Playing for a tough coach in Mike Shanahan, Davis should know that this season is probably his last chance. The best thing that happened to Fred Davis though was the drafting of Robert Griffin III. He put up those good numbers last season with Rex Grossman throwing him passes; imagine what he can do with a quarterback like RG3. I don’t think that Griffin will be a stud immediately, but young quarterbacks usually turn to their tight ends in their first seasons. Davis and RG3 are both incredible athletes, so I see the two hooking up on a lot of passes from outside of the pocket. Comfortably draft Davis as your #1 tight end, with the chance that he can enter top-5 overall territory.

Jacob Tamme – Jacob Tamme is playing for the Broncos. Peyton Manning is playing for the Broncos. That’s the majority of the argument folks. Two years ago when both were playing for Indianapolis and Dallas Clark got hurt, Tamme played like a #1 tight end when he got his chance. Tamme is now the starter in Denver, and the chemistry is already there between him and Peyton. The Broncos did also sign Joel Dreessen this offseason, so while he will steal some targets and maybe a few touchdowns, I still think Tamme will produce enough to finish as a worthy #1 tight end.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Antonio Gates – Sad to say, but this season is probably the beginning of the end for Gates. A fantasy stud for years, Gates is 32 years old now and has nothing left in his legs and feet. Not to mention, the Chargers know this and have added weapons for Philip Rivers to compensate for it. Gates doesn’t run the field like he used to, so the yards definitely won’t be there. He might have a decent number of receptions and touchdowns if he stays healthy, and that’s a big if. If he somehow does play the full season, I still see him as a low-end #1 tight end at best.

Tony Gonzalez – Another sorry conclusion to make. Probably the greatest tight end of all time, Gonzalez is also at the end of his career. He surprised many by finishing last season as the #4 tight end, but I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening again. This year will see the tight end position evolve with a newer crop of guys, and Gonzalez definitely is not one of them. Julio Jones will get a lot more of Matt Ryan’s targets this season, and Roddy White was the most targeted player in the entire league last year so he’ll get them again. Gonzalez might finish the season with a nice number of receptions, but the yards and touchdowns won’t be there. Gonzalez’s name might look appealing on the draft board, but refrain from starting him.

Dustin Keller – Surprise, surprise. Another overrated member of the New York Jets. Keller is Mark Sanchez’s favorite target, which would be meaningful if Sanchez didn’t suck. I’m not denying that Keller is a great athlete, but everyone season he has big expectations and he never fully comes through. This year should be no different, especially with Tim Tebow creeping behind Sanchez. Definitely don’t start Keller, and I would suggest not even drafting him. At best he’s a mediocre bye-week filler.

Thanks for reading everybody. Defenses and special teams come out tomorrow.

-PJ Moran

Fantasy Football: WR Preview

We’ve made our way to the flashiest position in football: wide receiver. While there are a fair share of wide receivers that can consistently put up good numbers week after week, the majority of the players at this position are hit-or-miss. There are also a few wide receivers every season that come out of nowhere and put up good, sometimes great, numbers. This is the best position for sleeper picks, just because there are so many talented receivers in the NFL and you never know when one might catch a break. Still, it is crucial that you have at least one receiver on your squad who is dependable on a weekly basis. Wide receiver is one of the positions that can make or break your fantasy team, so read closely and study up on the best pass catchers for this fantasy football season.

Rankings:

1. Calvin Johnson

2. Larry Fitzgerald

3. Wes Welker

4. Andre Johnson

5. Hakeem Nicks

6. Greg Jennings

7. Roddy White

8. A.J. Green

9. Julio Jones

10. Victor Cruz

11. Steve Smith

12. Mike Wallace

13. Marques Colston

14. Dez Bryant

15. Miles Austin

16. Jordy Nelson

17. Percy Harvin

18. Brandon Marshall

19. Demaryius Thomas

20. Antonio Brown

21. DeSean Jackson

22. Steve Johnson

23. Vincent Jackson

24. Dwayne Bowe

25. Jeremy Maclin

26. Eric Decker

27. Brandon Lloyd

28. Denarius Moore

29. Malcolm Floyd

30. Lance Moore

31. Torrey Smith

32. Titus Young

33. Robert Meachem

34. Darrius Heyward-Bey

35. Nate Washington

36. Anquan Boldin

37. Pierre Garcon

38. Reggie Wayne

39. Brandon LaFell

40. Brian Quick

41. Santonio Holmes

42. Mike Williams

43. Greg Little

44. Vincent Brown

45. Randall Cobb

46. Michael Floyd

47. Justin Blackmon

48. Laurent Robinson

49. Michael Crabtree

50. Kenny Britt

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Wes Welker – Honestly, what else does this guy have to do to be considered apart of the fantasy football elite? Excluding his injury-plagued 2010 season, Welker has averaged 117 catches per season over the last five seasons. If you’re worried about the tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez taking away targets from Welker, don’t be; Welker still set a career high in yards last season. Don’t fret about the addition of Brandon Lloyd either, because I don’t think he will be an integral part of the offense like some people may think. Even if he is, Welker had one of his best seasons in 2007 when Randy Moss had one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. The chemistry between Welker and Tom Brady is unparalleled, so you know Welker will put up similar numbers this season. I know he’s a small white guy who looks more like an accountant than a NFL player, but it’s time to give the man his due and consider him an elite fantasy receiver. Go ahead and use a high draft pick on him.

Marques Colston – Again, Colston is another guy that has been severely underappreciated for the last few years. Take out his 2008 season when he only played in 11 games, and Colston has caught at least 70 passes with 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every single season of his career. The scary part is that is the least he will do this upcoming season. Colston is a physical freak and has the tools to put together a monster season. The Saints do have a plethora of weapons, but Robert Meachem is out of town so Colston is their clear #1 receiver. Colston is a safe bet at receiver with a chance for a huge breakout. That is music to any fantasy owner’s ears.

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker – I couldn’t just pick one of them. One reason is because they are both young, talented receivers who have shown a lot of promise and are due for breakout seasons. The other reason is that Peyton Manning is their quarterback now, and only God knows which of these two guys he will like more. I actually think that Peyton will evenly distribute the ball between the two, which could mean huge numbers for both of them. Thomas is the freak of nature that Peyton has never had, while Decker is very similar to the guys that he had in Indianapolis. I predict that both Thomas and Decker will both have good years, with one of them maybe even having a great year. Comfortably start both of these guys.

DeSean Jackson – Discard last season, which was a disaster for most players on the Eagles, and Jackson would be viewed as a #1 receiver going into this season. He did undoubtedly stink it up last season, but his numbers weren’t as bad as most people think. His biggest problem last season was his contract dispute, but that’s resolved now so hopefully he will only be focused on playing football. Jackson goes as Michael Vick goes, and if Vick succeeds like I think he will this year, so will Jackson. Expect him to return to form this year, finishing as something like a high-end #2 receiver.

Titus Young – We know one thing for sure going into the 2012 NFL season: The Detroit Lions will throw the ball A LOT. Matthew Stafford will be the ringleader of this aerial circus, and while I don’t think he will repeat his success from last season, the Lions receivers will be given a ton of opportunities. Obviously, Calvin Johnson will get the most targets, deservingly so considering he is far and away the best receiver in the NFL. But he literally might be triple-teamed throughout the year, so someone else will have to catch the ball too. Enter Titus Young. A speedster who had moments of greatness in his rookie year, Young should break out this year. Nate Burleson is no longer a major factor in the offense, so Young should get his chances and take advantage of them. View him as a #2 receiver with a lot of upside.

Brian Quick – Unless you are as much of a fantasy nerd as I am, you’re initial thought of Quick was probably, “Who???” It won’t take long for the casual NFL fan to learn Quick’s name, a rookie out of Appalachian State who was taken with the first pick in the second round of the NFL Draft by the Rams. Quick is as physically gifted as they come at wide receiver, and Sam Bradford has been waiting for a playmaker like him ever since he got to the NFL. Although guys like Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd went early in the first round of the NFL Draft, I think Quick will score the most fantasy points of any rookie receiver this season. He is a very low-risk pick with an incredible amount of upside. Invest.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Andre Johnson – Or as I like to call him, the anti-Wes Welker. Johnson is bigger, faster, and stronger than any other receiver in the NFL, and he’s a menacing force when he stays healthy. That’s the problem though: he is never healthy. After tearing it up on the field in the first three weeks last season, Johnson started to tear up his hamstrings instead over the remainder of the season. Everyone roots for him to stay healthy, but it just doesn’t happen. The truth is that the Texans are a run-first team now too, with the deadly combo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. I know it’s going to be tempting seeing Johnson still on the draft board late in the first round or early in the second round, but stay away from him. It just never works out.

Mike Wallace – I just don’t get why so many people see Wallace as a #1 receiver. Even in his “breakout” season last year, he finished as only the #9 overall receiver and had single-digit point totals in half of his games. Now Wallace is in a mess of a contract negotiation, which is never a good start to a season. Just ask Chris Johnson. Wallace is also a big play receiver that is reliant on the health of Ben Roethlisberger and the stability of the Steelers’ offensive line, both of which are very questionable. Antonio Brown is emerging as a star receiver in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he finished the year with more fantasy points than Wallace. If you draft Wallace as your #1 receiver, you are going to get burned.

Brandon Marshall – I could write a five-paragraph essay on why you shouldn’t take Marshall, and I know that most people still wouldn’t listen to me because they think that he’s going to put up the numbers from his Denver days because he’s back with Jay Cutler. I’m sorry; it’s not going to happen. In Denver, Marshall was on an exciting, air-it-out team that allowed him to put up huge numbers. Now he’s in Chicago, a much more conservative team that also has a much better chance of winning. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice somehow turned a Minnesota Vikings team with Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss into a running team, so expect him to run the ball with Matt Forte and Michael Bush as much as possible. Also, Chicago gave up almost nothing for Marshall, so I can’t imagine they are expecting too much from him. Combine this with his bad attitude and legal issues, and I see an extremely disappointing season for Marshall.

Vincent Jackson – Ah, we’ve reached quite possibly the most overrated receiver in the NFL. Even better, now he’s gone from having a great quarterback in Philip Rivers to having an average quarterback in Josh Freeman. Like Jackson this year, Tampa Bay fans had big expectations for second-year receiver Mike Williams last season, and he responded by finishing as the #50 fantasy receiver. V-Jax has never caught 70 passes in a single season. He has never scored 10 or more touchdowns either. He’s also already 29 years old, so it’s not like he’s that young. New head coach Greg Schiano will want to run the ball, Jackson will want to be thrown the ball, and it’s just going to be one gigantic disaster. Steer clear of Jackson.

Santonio Holmes – It’s probably not a good sign with the team captain is the one who quits on the team and creates all the problems in the locker room. It’s also probably not a good sign when this same captain cracks his ribs in training camp, has an awful quarterback throwing to him, and not once caught 100 yards in a single game last season. If you haven’t guessed, this captain is Santonio Holmes, and I guarantee he is going to absolutely suck this season. There is almost no upside, even with Mark Sanchez at quarterback. If Tim Tebow becomes the starter, forget about it. If you are going to draft Santonio, do so as a backup. He should not be a starter on any fantasy rosters.

Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, and Randy Moss – If you can tell, I don’t like any 49ers wide receivers for this upcoming fantasy football season. The main reason is Alex Smith’s mediocrity (which you can read about fully in my QB Preview from Monday). Crabtree is probably the best receiver among this group, but most of his catches are on short passes so he won’t rack up yards or touchdowns. As a Giants fan, I can keep it brief and just inform you that Manningham isn’t good. If he doesn’t make that one incredible catch in the Super Bowl, he’s probably not making half of the money he just got. As for Moss, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had something left in the tank. He’s just in a terrible situation to thrive, as he is a big play receiver on a conservative team with a weak-armed quarterback. It also doesn’t help any of these three guys that Smith’s favorite target is Vernon Davis. Definitely don’t start anyone among this group. If you’re going to take a chance on one of them as a backup, make it Moss.

Tight end preview comes out tomorrow. Thanks for reading and stay tuned.

-PJ Moran

Fantasy Football: RB Preview

Hope you all enjoyed the quarterback preview. Next up is probably the most interesting position in fantasy football: running back. In today’s NFL where passing records are being broken left and right, it is tough to find a running back who gets a good number of carries and scoring opportunities. So this year it’s especially important that you can draft two guys who will have those chances, and there are going to be more of them than you might think. Obviously there is the elite group of runners, the guys who will fly off the board in the first round. I do strongly suggest taking a running back in the first round, considering it’s easily the slimmest position in fantasy football. But even if you land a bad pick or fall in love with a player at a different position, you can be OK. Read closely as I rank the running backs for this year’s fantasy football season, from the studs that will go in the first round to the late-round steals that can help you win your championship. Take my advice and I assure you that you can end up with the most complete team in your league.

Rankings:

1. Ray Rice

2. Arian Foster

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Ryan Mathews

5. Maurice Jones-Drew

6. Matt Forte

7. Darren McFadden

8. Chris Johnson

9. Adrian Peterson

10. Marshawn Lynch

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Fred Jackson

13. Jamaal Charles

14. Darren Sproles

15. Reggie Bush

16. Michael Turner

17. Steven Jackson

18. Trent Richardson

19. Willis McGahee

20. Roy Helu

21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

22. Ahmad Bradshaw

23. Isaac Redman

24. Frank Gore

25. Doug Martin

26. Ben Tate

27. Beanie Wells

28. Donald Brown

29. Stevan Ridley

30. Toby Gerhart

31. James Starks

32. Jonathan Stewart

33. Michael Bush

34. Peyton Hillis

35. C.J. Spiller

36. David Wilson

37. Felix Jones

38. DeAngelo Williams

39. Jahvid Best

40. Jonathan Dwyer

41. Mark Ingram

42. Evan Royster

43. Mike Goodson

44. Daniel Thomas

45. LeGarrette Blount

46. Bernard Scott

47. Ryan Williams

48. Kevin Smith

49. Dion Lewis

50. Shane Vereen

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Ray Rice – I know, I know. Ray Rice is by no means a sleeper. I am only including him in this column to make you sure that you know to take him with the first overall pick if you land that spot in your draft. The general argument for #1 overall is Rice vs. Arian Foster. Here are some reasons for Rice: He was the best running back in fantasy football last season. Cam Cameron, the offensive coordinator of the Ravens, will probably be fired if he does not run more with Rice and throw less with Joe Flacco. Ricky Williams, Rice’s backup last season, is out of the NFL and left the Ravens with no legitimate #2 running back. Not to mention, Rice is among the best there is at the running back position in receiving and pass blocking. While I do like Foster a lot, he did lose the entire right side of his offensive line and plays in front of the best backup running back in the NFL (Ben Tate). That enough?

Ryan Mathews – Here are some things you probably didn’t know about Ryan Mathews: He led the NFL with 4.9 yards per carry last season. He missed a few games and still caught 50 passes. Mike Tolbert stole 10 touchdowns from him. He still finished as the #9 overall running back. Well, the Chargers are looking to run the ball more this season, Mathews’ legs are at 100%, and Tolbert is out of San Diego. Mathews is entering his third-year, a very common year for running backs to break out. Expect that from Mathews this season.

Darren McFadden – If Run DMC manages to stay healthy for 16 games this season, watch out. Here are McFadden’s point totals from the six games he played in last season: 15, 24, 29, 11, 6, 15. Not to mention, that was with Jason Campbell as his starting quarterback and with Michael Bush taking some carries every game. Now Carson Palmer is behind center for the Raiders, and Bush is playing for Chicago. I know McFadden has a dreadful history of injuries, but none of them have been serious enough to the point where he can’t come back 100% from them. I think there is a fairly good chance that McFadden will play the whole season, and if he does, he is honestly good enough to be the #1 running back in fantasy football.

Darren Sproles – From one Darren to another. Sproles is easily the most interesting relevant running back in fantasy football. Last season, he rushed for two touchdowns and never topped 100 yards in a single game. However, this tiny talent did catch 86 passes out of the backfield, and only scored single-digit fantasy points in 5 games last season. He will never get a ton of carries, but he will catch a ton of balls while rushing for a decent amount of yards and probably scoring a few return touchdowns. In a year of uncertainty at the running back position, you can be certain that Sproles will come through with a good year.

Isaac Redman – If there is any running back that is in the perfect situation to maximize his talents, it’s Redman. Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL in Week 17 last season, so he is not expected to return any time soon this upcoming season. Even if he does, he sucks so don’t worry about him. I also don’t see the Steelers flourishing under Todd Haley as an offensive coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger (See: QB Preview) isn’t the gunslinger than Kurt Warner was, and they have no receivers that even compare to Larry Fitzgerald. Haley will have to change his ways from his Arizona days, and that means more carries for Redman. Look at Redman as a good #2 running back. If it turns out that he isn’t skilled enough to take advantage of this opportunity, substitute his backup Jonathan Dwyer into this column.

Donald Brown – The Colts have invested their entire future into Andrew Luck. The Colts also know that they aren’t going to be very good this year. For Luck, this season will be about just getting snaps and learning the ways of NFL defenses; the wins and big numbers will come in future seasons. That means that Luck will be handing the ball off a lot this season, and Brown is clearly the best running back on the Colts depth chart. Brown is still very young and showed flashes of brilliance last season, so I expect the Colts to try to develop chemistry between Luck and Brown like they did in the past with Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James. I see Brown as a decent #2 running back or a high-end flex play this fantasy football season.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Maurice Jones-Drew – I love MJD, so this is tough for me to admit. Last season he was fantastic, leading the NFL in rushing while also helping me win my fantasy league. I just can’t see him doing it again this year. I know he has been remarkably consistent the past few years, playing through injuries week after week and still putting up great numbers. But he is coming off of a whopping 343 carries last season, and players NEVER put up numbers even close the following season after carrying the ball that much. Jones-Drew also plays on a team with the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in Blaine Gabbert, so teams will know that the run is coming. I’m rooting for MJD this year, because he is as tough as they come and deserves another great year. But I wouldn’t touch him in the first round of fantasy drafts.

Steven Jackson – I feel the same way about Jackson as I do about Jones-Drew. I love them both, but they are both getting older, banged up, and play on terrible teams. Jackson does have a much more promising quarterback in Sam Bradford, so he may be able to lighten Jackson’s workload. Even if he does though, he would be doing so a few years too late. Jackson has been the Rams’ entire offense for years now, and a guy can only go on for so long with that kind of burden. For Jackson, I think last year was his last year as a good fantasy running back. He’s just too old now, and the Rams still haven’t gotten him nearly enough help. Absolute best-case scenario, I see Jackson finishing the year as an average #2 running back. 

Frank Gore – Yes, Frank Gore did play in all 16 games last season. And yes, Jim Harbaugh is going to run the ball as much as possible due to Alex Smith’s inadequacy. I just don’t think as many of the carries will be going to Gore as one might think. As last season progressed, Gore averaged less and less carries per game. He also did not have one game of 100 yards rushing from Week 10 to Week 17. The 49ers also signed Brandon Jacobs, drafted LaMichael James, and have the promising Kendall Hunter on their depth chart. Gore has had a great NFL career, but I see this year as the beginning of a rapid decline in production. Like Jackson, I think the best possible outcome for Gore this season would be as a decent #2 running back.

Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams – Oh, how it would suck to be a running back for the Carolina Panthers. Stewart and Williams are some of the most talented running backs in the NFL, but they are both in just in a god-awful situation. Not only will Cam Newton throw the ball a lot this season, but he will also steal nearly every goal-line touchdown from these running backs. And just to make sure that Stewart and Williams don’t score any short-distance touchdowns, the Panthers brought in Mike Tolbert just in case. The touchdowns won’t be there, the total yards won’t be there, and a starting spot on your fantasy roster shouldn’t be there.

Jahvid Best – I’ll keep it short and sweet. Three words: history of concussions. Stay as far away as possible.

LeGarrette Blount – After a very promising rookie year in which he cracked the 1,000-yard mark, Blount put up one of the most disappointing fantasy years by a running back in recent memory last season. When a 250-pound man is afraid to run into a hole, he probably isn’t going to do very well in the NFL. The motivation just isn’t there for Blount. He would probably rather spend his Sunday smoking his last name then playing football. Not to mention, he would also find a way to fumble the football even if you taped it to his hands. Tampa Bay used its first round pick on Doug Martin (just missed the cut in the Good Vibes column), who should excel and quickly become the team’s starting running back. Absolutely do not draft Blount as a starter for your fantasy team, and I would even suggest that you don’t draft him at all.

That’s my input on running backs for this season. Wide receiver preview debuts tomorrow.

-PJ Moran

Fantasy Football: Introduction and QB Preview

It’s about that time of year ladies and gentlemen! Okay, probably just gentlemen. But anyway, fantasy football season is right around the corner, and we couldn’t be more excited about it. For us, fantasy football draft night is right up there with Christmas and our own birthdays. It’s a night of great expectations, high hopes, and intense decision-making. However, just one bad pick can crush all of your championship aspirations, so you best make sure that you are prepared for your draft.

You might be wondering, why should I listen to some guy on the Internet with my fantasy football draft? Well, I have never missed the playoffs in a fantasy football season. I’ve led my league in scoring in three of the past four years. Last season, I finished the regular season 12-1 and swept the competition in the postseason. That’s right: I went 15-1. Suck on that Matthew Berry. So yeah, I’d listen to me.

Every day for the next six days I will release a preview of each major fantasy position. These previews will feature rankings along with my predictions for sleepers and busts.

I’ll start with the quarterbacks, the most important position in real football and fantasy football. Your quarterback truly dictates the success of your team, so make sure that you like whom you have at the top of your roster. Is it possible to win with a below-average quarterback? Yes, but I can assure you it’s a helluva lot harder. So kick back, read closely, and take my advice on which quarterbacks will give you the best chance of fantasy glory.

Rankings:

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Michael Vick

5. Peyton Manning

6. Cam Newton

7. Matthew Stafford

8. Eli Manning

9. Philip Rivers

10. Tony Romo

11. Matt Ryan

12. Jay Cutler

13. Ben Roethlisberger

14. Matt Schaub

15. Joe Flacco

16. Andy Dalton

17. Carson Palmer

18. Robert Griffin III

19. Josh Freeman

20. Ryan Fitzpatrick

21. Andrew Luck

22. Alex Smith

23. Matt Flynn

24. Kevin Kolb

25. Sam Bradford

26. Matt Cassel

27. Tim Tebow

28. Mark Sanchez

29. Christian Ponder

30. Jake Locker

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Drew Brees – I know what you’re probably thinking: No shit, Sherlock. The guy threw for almost 5,500 yards last season. But Brees has his doubters this season. Head coach and play-caller Sean Payton is suspended for the entire season because Roger Goodell is channeling his inner Joseph Stalin. Robert Meachem left for San Diego and Carl Nicks is suiting up for Tampa Bay. Still, this guy is still the best on-field leader in the league and still has the game’s most accurate arm. He still has Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and more. I’m not saying he’s going to break his own passing record, but I expect similar numbers this season. Don’t be afraid to invest a late first-round pick on the guy.

Michael Vick – As a die-hard Giants fan, I hate to admit it but I think Michael Vick is going to have a monster year. After a huge 2010 showing Vick disappointed last season, but the guy was still pretty damn good. He only played in 13 games, and he still threw for more yards in a single season than he ever had in his career. On top of this, he only ran for one touchdown last year, so there will be plenty more of those this season. I don’t expect the Eagles to be the “Dream Team”, but I do think they will be scary good this year, mainly because of Vick’s play.

Peyton Manning – It honestly blows my mind seeing where Peyton Manning ranks in most other experts’ rankings. I felt like I was short-changing him at #5. I know he didn’t play at all last year and that he’s with a new team, BUT IT’S PEYTON MANNING. This guy is a top-3 all time quarterback, and it’s not like he’s long removed from his success. Of the last three seasons he has played, he won two MVP awards. Does he have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in Denver? No, but he does have a better running game and offensive line than he did in his last years in Indianapolis. Peyton is an injury-risk, but I don’t think he’s as risky as everyone else does. I trust Peyton, and I would draft him as my fantasy starter with full confidence.

Carson Palmer – Palmer’s numbers weren’t too good last year, so I’m sure you’re probably wondering why I like him for this season. Well, he was rushed in as a Raider, with limited time to work with his new teammates and to learn the playbook. His fellow Raiders, especially Darren McFadden, were also never at full strength when he was behind center. So while it would be idiotic to predict that Carson Palmer will be a star fantasy player this season, I do think there’s a good chance he can be a low-end starter. A top-10 season for quarterbacks wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.

Tim Tebow – Don’t worry, I’m not at all a part of the Tebowmania. But I do think that Timmy T will perform better this upcoming season than most people expect. I don’t think it will take too long for Mark Sanchez to blow it and give Tebow the chance to start. But even if that doesn’t happen, I think that Rex Ryan is crazy enough to use a ton of offenses that give Tebow the chance to run. And if some of these offenses are within the red zone, you can expect a high number of running touchdowns. Please do not draft Tebow as your Week One fantasy starter. But please don’t let Tebow sit in free agency and eventually burn you at the end of the season.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Matthew Stafford – Let me get this straight: I don’t think Stafford is going to have a bad year because he’s in this column. I just don’t think that he’s going to approach everyone’s expectations. I don’t even like his chances to stay healthy another full season. I know he didn’t miss a start last year, but I feel like his right shoulder is being held together by Elmer’s Glue at this point in his career. On top of that, I don’t like quarterbacks who are completely reliant on one receiver, as Stafford is on Calvin Johnson. Not to mention, the Lions have absolutely no running game so defenses are going to adjust this time around. I see Stafford as a low-end starter and don’t think you should consider him at his average draft position.

Eli Manning – Eli is my favorite player in the NFL, so I don’t really have anything bad to say about him. Just don’t think of him as the two-time Super Bowl MVP when you are looking for a fantasy quarterback. You know what you’re getting when you draft Eli: Consistently solid numbers and also no monster performances. While he’s undoubtedly an elite quarterback in this league, he is better at winning games than putting up big numbers. In fantasy, that doesn’t do you much good.

Ben Roethlisberger – I don’t think I can be clearer when I say, DO NOT LET BIG BEN BE YOUR STARTING QUARTERBACK. It’s not that I hate Roethlisberger…oh wait, yes I do. He’s an average quarterback who only has two rings because he has played on teams that had legendary defenses. He has put up good numbers in the past, but never great numbers. It’s possible that his offensive line has gotten even worse this year, Mike Wallace’s contract situation is a mess, and Isaac Redman is going to be the starting running back. If that’s not enough reasons to stay away from Big Ben, then have fun coming in last place this year.

Robert Griffin III – I do fully believe that RG3 will someday be a phenomenal quarterback in this league. However, it won’t happen in his rookie year. I know many people are going to draft him thinking that he will put up Cam Newton-like numbers. But Griffin and Newton don’t have nearly as much in common as people think. Newton was on an awful team with a first-year head coach, so he was able to take a ton of chances and really experiment on the field. RG3, on the other hand, is playing on a team that’s more talented than most people think that is coached by Mike Shanahan. Shanahan will run the ball as much as possible, so I’d expect Griffin to throw maybe 20-25 balls a game. Expect big numbers from RG3 in the future, just not this year.

Alex Smith – The 49ers were a new and exciting team last year, so people really didn’t pay attention to how mediocre Alex Smith is. In a season where quarterbacks put up video game-like numbers, Alex Smith never threw for 300 yards in a regular season game. In the NFC Championship Game, he did not complete one pass to a wide receiver. I know they brought in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, but it won’t take long to realize that Moss is so far past his prime and that Manningham actually sucks. I’m sure Alex Smith is a nice guy, but you don’t get fantasy points for making friends. While you’re drafting Smith to be your starter, I’ll be admitting you to your nearest insane asylum.

That’s all for quarterbacks. Stay tuned for running backs tomorrow.

-PJ Moran