Fantasy Football: WR Preview

We’ve made our way to the flashiest position in football: wide receiver. While there are a fair share of wide receivers that can consistently put up good numbers week after week, the majority of the players at this position are hit-or-miss. There are also a few wide receivers every season that come out of nowhere and put up good, sometimes great, numbers. This is the best position for sleeper picks, just because there are so many talented receivers in the NFL and you never know when one might catch a break. Still, it is crucial that you have at least one receiver on your squad who is dependable on a weekly basis. Wide receiver is one of the positions that can make or break your fantasy team, so read closely and study up on the best pass catchers for this fantasy football season.

Rankings:

1. Calvin Johnson

2. Larry Fitzgerald

3. Wes Welker

4. Andre Johnson

5. Hakeem Nicks

6. Greg Jennings

7. Roddy White

8. A.J. Green

9. Julio Jones

10. Victor Cruz

11. Steve Smith

12. Mike Wallace

13. Marques Colston

14. Dez Bryant

15. Miles Austin

16. Jordy Nelson

17. Percy Harvin

18. Brandon Marshall

19. Demaryius Thomas

20. Antonio Brown

21. DeSean Jackson

22. Steve Johnson

23. Vincent Jackson

24. Dwayne Bowe

25. Jeremy Maclin

26. Eric Decker

27. Brandon Lloyd

28. Denarius Moore

29. Malcolm Floyd

30. Lance Moore

31. Torrey Smith

32. Titus Young

33. Robert Meachem

34. Darrius Heyward-Bey

35. Nate Washington

36. Anquan Boldin

37. Pierre Garcon

38. Reggie Wayne

39. Brandon LaFell

40. Brian Quick

41. Santonio Holmes

42. Mike Williams

43. Greg Little

44. Vincent Brown

45. Randall Cobb

46. Michael Floyd

47. Justin Blackmon

48. Laurent Robinson

49. Michael Crabtree

50. Kenny Britt

Good Vibes (Sleepers):

Wes Welker – Honestly, what else does this guy have to do to be considered apart of the fantasy football elite? Excluding his injury-plagued 2010 season, Welker has averaged 117 catches per season over the last five seasons. If you’re worried about the tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez taking away targets from Welker, don’t be; Welker still set a career high in yards last season. Don’t fret about the addition of Brandon Lloyd either, because I don’t think he will be an integral part of the offense like some people may think. Even if he is, Welker had one of his best seasons in 2007 when Randy Moss had one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. The chemistry between Welker and Tom Brady is unparalleled, so you know Welker will put up similar numbers this season. I know he’s a small white guy who looks more like an accountant than a NFL player, but it’s time to give the man his due and consider him an elite fantasy receiver. Go ahead and use a high draft pick on him.

Marques Colston – Again, Colston is another guy that has been severely underappreciated for the last few years. Take out his 2008 season when he only played in 11 games, and Colston has caught at least 70 passes with 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every single season of his career. The scary part is that is the least he will do this upcoming season. Colston is a physical freak and has the tools to put together a monster season. The Saints do have a plethora of weapons, but Robert Meachem is out of town so Colston is their clear #1 receiver. Colston is a safe bet at receiver with a chance for a huge breakout. That is music to any fantasy owner’s ears.

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker – I couldn’t just pick one of them. One reason is because they are both young, talented receivers who have shown a lot of promise and are due for breakout seasons. The other reason is that Peyton Manning is their quarterback now, and only God knows which of these two guys he will like more. I actually think that Peyton will evenly distribute the ball between the two, which could mean huge numbers for both of them. Thomas is the freak of nature that Peyton has never had, while Decker is very similar to the guys that he had in Indianapolis. I predict that both Thomas and Decker will both have good years, with one of them maybe even having a great year. Comfortably start both of these guys.

DeSean Jackson – Discard last season, which was a disaster for most players on the Eagles, and Jackson would be viewed as a #1 receiver going into this season. He did undoubtedly stink it up last season, but his numbers weren’t as bad as most people think. His biggest problem last season was his contract dispute, but that’s resolved now so hopefully he will only be focused on playing football. Jackson goes as Michael Vick goes, and if Vick succeeds like I think he will this year, so will Jackson. Expect him to return to form this year, finishing as something like a high-end #2 receiver.

Titus Young – We know one thing for sure going into the 2012 NFL season: The Detroit Lions will throw the ball A LOT. Matthew Stafford will be the ringleader of this aerial circus, and while I don’t think he will repeat his success from last season, the Lions receivers will be given a ton of opportunities. Obviously, Calvin Johnson will get the most targets, deservingly so considering he is far and away the best receiver in the NFL. But he literally might be triple-teamed throughout the year, so someone else will have to catch the ball too. Enter Titus Young. A speedster who had moments of greatness in his rookie year, Young should break out this year. Nate Burleson is no longer a major factor in the offense, so Young should get his chances and take advantage of them. View him as a #2 receiver with a lot of upside.

Brian Quick – Unless you are as much of a fantasy nerd as I am, you’re initial thought of Quick was probably, “Who???” It won’t take long for the casual NFL fan to learn Quick’s name, a rookie out of Appalachian State who was taken with the first pick in the second round of the NFL Draft by the Rams. Quick is as physically gifted as they come at wide receiver, and Sam Bradford has been waiting for a playmaker like him ever since he got to the NFL. Although guys like Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd went early in the first round of the NFL Draft, I think Quick will score the most fantasy points of any rookie receiver this season. He is a very low-risk pick with an incredible amount of upside. Invest.

Bad Vibes (Busts):

Andre Johnson – Or as I like to call him, the anti-Wes Welker. Johnson is bigger, faster, and stronger than any other receiver in the NFL, and he’s a menacing force when he stays healthy. That’s the problem though: he is never healthy. After tearing it up on the field in the first three weeks last season, Johnson started to tear up his hamstrings instead over the remainder of the season. Everyone roots for him to stay healthy, but it just doesn’t happen. The truth is that the Texans are a run-first team now too, with the deadly combo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. I know it’s going to be tempting seeing Johnson still on the draft board late in the first round or early in the second round, but stay away from him. It just never works out.

Mike Wallace – I just don’t get why so many people see Wallace as a #1 receiver. Even in his “breakout” season last year, he finished as only the #9 overall receiver and had single-digit point totals in half of his games. Now Wallace is in a mess of a contract negotiation, which is never a good start to a season. Just ask Chris Johnson. Wallace is also a big play receiver that is reliant on the health of Ben Roethlisberger and the stability of the Steelers’ offensive line, both of which are very questionable. Antonio Brown is emerging as a star receiver in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he finished the year with more fantasy points than Wallace. If you draft Wallace as your #1 receiver, you are going to get burned.

Brandon Marshall – I could write a five-paragraph essay on why you shouldn’t take Marshall, and I know that most people still wouldn’t listen to me because they think that he’s going to put up the numbers from his Denver days because he’s back with Jay Cutler. I’m sorry; it’s not going to happen. In Denver, Marshall was on an exciting, air-it-out team that allowed him to put up huge numbers. Now he’s in Chicago, a much more conservative team that also has a much better chance of winning. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice somehow turned a Minnesota Vikings team with Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss into a running team, so expect him to run the ball with Matt Forte and Michael Bush as much as possible. Also, Chicago gave up almost nothing for Marshall, so I can’t imagine they are expecting too much from him. Combine this with his bad attitude and legal issues, and I see an extremely disappointing season for Marshall.

Vincent Jackson – Ah, we’ve reached quite possibly the most overrated receiver in the NFL. Even better, now he’s gone from having a great quarterback in Philip Rivers to having an average quarterback in Josh Freeman. Like Jackson this year, Tampa Bay fans had big expectations for second-year receiver Mike Williams last season, and he responded by finishing as the #50 fantasy receiver. V-Jax has never caught 70 passes in a single season. He has never scored 10 or more touchdowns either. He’s also already 29 years old, so it’s not like he’s that young. New head coach Greg Schiano will want to run the ball, Jackson will want to be thrown the ball, and it’s just going to be one gigantic disaster. Steer clear of Jackson.

Santonio Holmes – It’s probably not a good sign with the team captain is the one who quits on the team and creates all the problems in the locker room. It’s also probably not a good sign when this same captain cracks his ribs in training camp, has an awful quarterback throwing to him, and not once caught 100 yards in a single game last season. If you haven’t guessed, this captain is Santonio Holmes, and I guarantee he is going to absolutely suck this season. There is almost no upside, even with Mark Sanchez at quarterback. If Tim Tebow becomes the starter, forget about it. If you are going to draft Santonio, do so as a backup. He should not be a starter on any fantasy rosters.

Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, and Randy Moss – If you can tell, I don’t like any 49ers wide receivers for this upcoming fantasy football season. The main reason is Alex Smith’s mediocrity (which you can read about fully in my QB Preview from Monday). Crabtree is probably the best receiver among this group, but most of his catches are on short passes so he won’t rack up yards or touchdowns. As a Giants fan, I can keep it brief and just inform you that Manningham isn’t good. If he doesn’t make that one incredible catch in the Super Bowl, he’s probably not making half of the money he just got. As for Moss, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had something left in the tank. He’s just in a terrible situation to thrive, as he is a big play receiver on a conservative team with a weak-armed quarterback. It also doesn’t help any of these three guys that Smith’s favorite target is Vernon Davis. Definitely don’t start anyone among this group. If you’re going to take a chance on one of them as a backup, make it Moss.

Tight end preview comes out tomorrow. Thanks for reading and stay tuned.

-PJ Moran